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THE proposed Tipaimukh dam is to be located 500 metres downstream from the confluence of Barak and Tuivai rivers, and lies on the south-western corner of Manipur state. It is a huge earth dam (rock-fill with central impervious core) having an altitude of about 180m above the sea level with a maximum reservoir level of 178m and 136m as the minimum draw down level. The dam was originally conceived to only contain the floodwater in the Cachar plains of Assam but later on, emphasis has been placed on hydroelectric power generation, having an installation capacity of 1,500MW with only a firm generation of 412MW (less than 30 per cent of installed capacity). In order to appease the people of Manipur state, the project proponent, NEEPCO, has been building up a list of benefits that include high-class tourism, free power sharing, resettlement and rehabilitation package and an all round rosy picture of development.
   Over the past decade and half, the issue of Tipaimukh dam has created a lot of disenchantment in regard to scientific, technical, economic and environmental feasibility of the dam, especially concerning with the state of Manipur. An attempt is, therefore, made here to provide a brief geological, structural and tectonic account of Tipaimukh and its adjoining region in terms of tectonic framework of Indo-Myanmar [Burma] Ranges in general and that of Manipur in particular and possible socio-economic impacts of the dam. Such a consideration would reveal the nature and extent of the geo-tectonic risk being taken by constructing a mega-dam at Tipaimukh.
   
   Some basic geological information
   TIPAIMUKH and its adjoining areas are basically made up of Surma Group of rocks. The rocks of Surma Group are mainly light grey to brownish grey generally medium to coarse grained sandstones having occasional shale and silt/sand intervening bands between massive to thickly bedded sandstones. Conglomeratic (loosely cemented pebbles and gravel)) horizon at the base of Bhuban Formation, though, can be observed in the field easily due to its wide areal extent; other conglomeratic horizons are generally often missing which is probably due to their localised nature.
   In general, this group of rocks are predominantly arenaceous with subordinate shales. Usually shales are less sandy and sandstones are less argillaceous. Some typical natures of bedding similar to turbidite character are also found at places. Like Barails, Surma Group of rocks is also marked by primary structures such as cross bedding, ripple marks, etc.
   All these geologic features, lithocharacters as well as primary structures suggest a different depositional environment from that of the Disangs and Barails. So, these groups of rocks as well as the younger Tipams are treated as molasse sediments.
   The rocks of Surma Group are well characterised by folds and faults having regional strike similar to that of the Barails, i.e. NNE-SSW. Fractures are also well developed which have close relationship with the topographic features and drainage patterns. The geometry of folds found in the region is quite typical as in other parts of the Surma Basin and Western Manipur. Antiforms are generally sharp and angular forming ridges while synforms are broad and rounded representing valleys and river beds. Such geometry of the folds might have been controlled by hidden faults called blind thrusts. And these thrusts could be potential earthquake foci any time in future.
   Geomorphic and topographic features around Tipaimukh and its adjoining region is also quite interesting not only because of thickly vegetated low-lying hill ranges but also due to the intimate relationship between the topography, especially the drainage system, and the structural and tectonic lineaments of the region. The drainage pattern of the Barak river and its tributary system around Tipaimukh displays how delicately Barak river takes a turn of about 360 degrees at Tipaimukh giving rise to what is called, barbed pattern. Such a drainage pattern is always resulted from the structural control of the river. And practically the main Barak River opposite to Tuivai River itself is also controlled by the Barak-Makru thrust fault. Further it is also observed that main Barak river course and its tributary system are all controlled by faults and fractures as they all show rectangular to sub-rectangular drainage patterns.
   All these faults and fractures cause localised shifting or deflection of the main river course, and even at the confluence of Barak River and Tuivai River. Such faults are potentially active and may be focal and/or epicentres of any future earthquake.
   Northeast region among six major seismically active zones of the world tectonic setting of Northeast India is one of the most interesting aspects in the tectonic framework of Southeast Asia. In this region, two typical tectonic settings are found resulting from the convergence between Indian and Eurasian plates. The Eastern Himalayas represent a continent to continent collision mechanism while the Indo-Myanmar Range is an island arc type of subduction mechanism. The Indo-Myanmar Range, therefore, evolved as an accretionary prism where major structural and tectonic features spread out in the form of an imbricate thrust system. The Tipaimukh area, about which the dam is proposed to construct, lies in the Barak-Makru Thrust zone of the imbricate thrust system.
   The structural and tectonic pattern of Manipur is transitional between the NE-SW trending pattern of Naga-Patkai Hills and N-S trend of Mizoram and Chin Hills. The general structural and lithological trend of the rock formations of the state is NNE-SSW. It frequently varies between N-S and NE-SW although sometimes NNW-SSE trends are locally common. Almost all the major structural elements such as folds, thrust and reverse faults follow this regional strike. Majority of the extensional structures, e.g. normal faults, have WNW-ESE trend. While the structures having neither compress ional nor extensional affinities strike in the NW-SE and NE-SW quadrants. Dip of the lithounits varies between moderate to steep angles towards east or west. The geological and structural settings suggest a very interesting tectonic evolutionary history of the state.
   The state, forming an integral part of the Indo-Myanmar Range, lies in the boundary region of the Indian, Eurasian and Myanmar plates having typical interaction nature. As a result, the region is also one of the most seismically active zones in the world (Zone V, earthquake zones of India).
   The northeast region of India is one of the six major seismically active zones of the world that includes California, North-East India, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey. So, it is essential to have a brief discussion on these aspects also.
   
   Plate kinematics
   THE root cause of earthquakes in a particular region is more or less exclusively a function of the tectonic setting of that region and its proximity to plate boundary. Therefore, the tectonic setting, plate movements and palaeo- and neo-stress analyses of the region are very important aspects in order to know about the seismic activity of that region. It not only will reveal the deformation mechanism of the region but also will provide knowledge about the structures that may be easily reactivated as a function of the plate kinematics in that region.
   Analysis conducted by the author about the plate kinematics in and around Manipur reveals that the structural and tectonic features of the IMR in general and that of Manipur in particular evolved through the interaction between the Indian and Myanmar plates rather than Indian and Eurasian (China) plates under a simple shear deformation mechanism. From the analysis it is found that the region has compression in the WNW-ESE direction while extension lies in the NNE-SSW direction. As a result, structures such as folds, reverse and thrust faults oriented parallel to NNE-SSW direction will suffer maximum compression and shortening while structures such as normal faults, tension fractures and joints running parallel to the WNW-ESE direction will undergo maximum extension.
   And structures lying in the NW-SE and NE-SW quadrants will have strike-slip movement. The faults and fractures around Tipaimukh dam axis belong to the category that may undergo strike-slip and extensional movements. So, these structures can be easily reactivated causing small to considerable displacement along them by any tectonic phenomena e.g. moderate and large earthquakes. By such a process, if the dam axis is displaced by a few centimetres a serious damage may occur causing a dam disaster leading to huge loss of lives and property.
   
   Seismicity
   Northeast India is one of the highest earthquake-potential area in the world due to its tectonic setting, i.e. subduction, as well as collision plate convergence. Analysis of earthquake epicentres and magnitudes of 5M and above within 100-200km radii of Tipaimukh dam site reveals hundreds of earthquakes in the last 100-200 years. It is found that within 100km radius of Tipaimukh, 2 earthquakes of +7M magnitude have taken place in the last 150 years and the last one being in 1957 at an aerial distance of about 75km from the dam site in the ENE direction.
   Beside the frequency of such large earthquakes within 100km radius, it is also further observed that a number of epicentral points align in the form of a linear array parallel to regional strike NNE-SSW or N-S revealing how this Barak-Makru thrust zone is seismically active. Another important aspect of seismic activity is that shallow earthquakes are far more disastrous than the deeper ones even if magnitude is relatively low since destructive surface waves can be quickly and easily propagated from the focus/epicentre. And majority of the earthquakes that takes place on the western side of Manipur are shallow (50km focal depth or less) which is due to the tectonic setting of the Indo-Myanmar Range.
   Under these circumstances whether it will be a wise policy to construct a huge dam or not need to be thoroughly discussed and investigated. The trend of earthquakes shows that the regions which have experienced earthquakes in the past are more prone to it; the magnitude of future earthquakes may be uniform to the past ones; and the earthquake occurrence, geological data and tectonic history all have close correlation (Mollick). The Tipaimukh Dam site has been chosen at the highest risk seismically hazardous zone.
   The dam proponent, NEEPCO, claims that seismic hazards are being taken care of through consultations with Rourkee University (However, the government of India has requested NEEPCO to also consult with the Geological Survey of India). Here it is pertinent to state that extreme seismic hazards cannot be addressed adequately or satisfactorily through consultations with seismologists, as the risk inducing and impact factors are mechanical, geophysical, tectonic and socio-economic in nature.
   Dr Soibam Ibotombi teaches earth sciences at Manipur University

FIVE years ago, Indian voters comprehensively shredded the predictions of their country’s chattering class, toppling the then ruling Bharatiya Janata Party government and sweeping to power the centrist Congress party. Analysts, pollsters, and journalists at the time all expected a BJP triumph, believing too readily the hype surrounding the BJP’s promise of an ‘India Shining’. The country’s electorate – the largest in the world – proved them woefully wrong.
   Once again, the Indian voter has upstaged the Indian commentator. While many predicted that the ruling Congress-led coalition would shade this year’s national elections, none foresaw the emphatic victory that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh claimed this weekend. The United Progressive Alliance – comprising the Congress and its remaining regional allies – won 263 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament), a measly nine seats short of the required majority. Congress leaders need only cherry pick small, convenient parties to make up the deficit.
   The Hindu nationalist BJP and its allies, under the umbrella of the New Democratic Alliance, return to the opposition after only mustering 158 seats, trailing by a yawning chasm of over one hundred MPs. They now look on morosely as Congress builds a coalition government likely to be the strongest and most stable in over two decades of fractious politics.
   
   A false dusk for Congress
   IF ONE believed the ubiquitous media narrative ahead of this election, such an outcome would have been unimaginable. We were told that Congress – the 124-year old party that won independence from Britain in 1947, but held dynastic sway over India for over four decades thereafter – was in irreversible decline. We were told that regional and identity-based parties would continue to siphon away disillusioned voters, further splintering India’s vast political landscape. We were told that India was doomed to governments with increasingly weak mandates, governments dependent on anarchic, unreliable coalition allies to maintain their fitful hold on power.
   The results disclosed on Saturday suggest otherwise. Nearly one out of three voters (28.5 per cent) chose the Congress party, a substantial sum given that Indians had to find their way through a blizzard of 1,055 contesting parties. Its own tally of 206 seats is Congress’ highest since 1991, when it won 244. While Indian electoral politics can be intensely local and parochial (voters often cast their ballots with their religious, caste, ethnic or linguistic identities in mind), Congress’ success is being understood as a vote of approval for its last five years of leadership.
   The UPA government allowed the lightning pace of economic growth in India to tick along, while ensuring the country remained in large part sheltered from the buffeting winds of global recession. In the face of criticism from free-marketeers and governance sceptics, it invested in the gargantuan National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a project of unprecedented size that begins to make up for India’s egregious lack of a social welfare net. And it demonstrated coolness in the wake the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, resisting hot-headed calls for military pressure and action against Pakistan.
   If the elections of 2004 were a rejection of the hyperbole of the BJP, this year’s polls seem to have rewarded the UPA’s restrained, sober rule with an indisputable mandate. Some Congress leaders have spoken of the victory as ushering in a moment of ‘renewal’, but in truth it is one of triumphant reinforcement. In New Delhi today, elected Congress MPs joyously backed Manmohan Singh’s return as prime minister for a second term. They know that there will be much more scope in the next five years for their initiative, their strategy and their agenda.
   
   Would-be friends
   IT IS a chastening prospect not lost on Congress’ fickle, erstwhile allies. Parties that jettisoned the UPA in the run-up to the election now plaintively seek re-entry into the ruling coalition. In the north central state of Uttar Pradesh (India’s most populous state), the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have pledged their unconditional outside support (at the least) to the UPA. Both parties were stunned by the success of the Congress after it won 21 seats in Uttar Pradesh, a feat attributed in large part to the party’s intensive grassroots campaigning under the state leadership of Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.
   The fortunes of the BSP, in particular, also grate against the pre-election narrative. Many analysts speculated about the possibility of Mayawati, the iconic BSP leader and chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, becoming prime minister. She and her party represented the supposed ascendance of alternative, centrifugal trends in Indian politics, galvanising the support of marginalised groups and capitalising on the failings of the big parties. The BSP’s disappointing results around the country have now left its leadership in the midst of gloomy soul-searching, with Mayawati pledging to return to the purely caste-based agenda that had won her success in the past.
   In neighbouring Bihar, the dismal showing of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party – the latter of which was effectively wiped off the map – prompted further promises of support for the newly victorious UPA. Both parties’ leaders had held prominent ministerial posts in the last UPA government, before ditching the Congress ahead of the polls in what turned out to be a disastrous decision. Now, local Congress workers insist that any serious reconciliation with the RJD and its colourful and controversial leader Lalu Prasad Yadav would only derail hopes for a Congress ‘revival’ in Bihar. Far from relying on their regional allies, the Congress may be better off without some of them.
   
   The bereaved
   CONGRESS leaders may take particular pleasure in the stunning decimation of the Left. Last summer, India’s Communist parties withdrew their outside support for the UPA and threatened to topple the government altogether over the Indo-US nuclear deal. The Left will be unable to launch such a bold bid in the next five years after being crushed in their strongholds in the eastern state of West Bengal and the south-western state of Kerala. Their representation in parliament plummets from 59 seats to a dejected 24.
   Events in West Bengal, where Communists have been in power since 1977, were particularly striking. The Trinamool Congress, the main opposition in the state, increased its block in the Lok Sabha from a solitary seat to 19, while the state’s ruling Communist party dipped from 35 seats to 15. Disillusionment with the Communists’ heavy-handed management of the divisive development projects at Singur and Nandigram most likely contributed the party’s downfall. Key leaders are set to resign as the Left cuts its losses.
   Also licking its wounds is the BJP. The Hindu nationalist party remains the second largest party in parliament and the core of the opposition to the new government, but morale within the party has plunged. Its shrill, often ad hominem attacks on the Congress failed to rouse voters. Its petty politics over the Indo-US nuclear deal – a policy that it would have certainly pursued if in power – undermined its credibility. And its continued ties to atavistic extremist groups (like the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra) alienate India’s many non-Hindus and young people tired of religious politics. For the sake of Indian democracy and for its own good, the BJP must discard these unsavoury allies and reinvent itself as a truly centre-right party, shorn of its fanatic fringe.
   
   Strength at the centre
   AS THE implications of the election results sink in across India’s vast and diverse political landscape, optimism amongst Indians has surged. The country’s stock markets saw frenetic activity yesterday and today, some indexes reaching astonishing highs. With Congress in such a strong position, Indians look forward to a stable government that will finally be able to shape coherent, determined domestic policy in the many areas that require its attention.
   Congress’ emphatic victory will also come as welcome news to western powers. Europe and the United States want India to play an increasing role as a responsible stakeholder in the international system. A Congress-led government, unburdened of the anti-imperialist ideology of its former Communist allies, will be better able to navigate the global stage. The alarming growth of insurgency, terrorism and instability in neighbouring countries in south Asia also demands clear-thinking and decisive strategy from New Delhi. A weak government, constantly looking over its shoulder, would not be up to the task.
   Amidst all the hope, one must sound a cautionary note. India has had its fair share of strong Congress governments in the past, not many of which could be deemed successful, even in the most generous terms. The regionalisation and fragmentation that has characterised the last twenty years of Indian politics arose from the systemic failings allowed by grey ladies like the Congress party. Congress leaders should not only use the stability of the government to advance policy objectives, but to build a more inclusive politics, to deepen Indian democracy from the bottom-up. This would be the best way to honour the privilege of the mandate of a billion people.
   openDemocracy, May 19. Kanishk Tharoor is associate editor of openDemocracy.

After the war

With the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam militarily defeated and its leader Velupillai Prabhakaran dead, according to the government, Sri Lanka may have finally put the nearly three decades of bloody civil war behind.
   However, the government needs to try its utmost to heal the
   deep scar that the war has left and reach out to the hundreds of thousands of Tamil civilians in ‘a language of reconciliation in the interest of a more integrated post-war Sri Lanka.’
   It must not forget that nationalistic chauvinism of the Sinhalese majority may have touched off the resentment in the Tamil minority and prompted them to take up arms in the first place.
   M Hussain
   Banani, Dhaka

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