Saving Bangladesh from sinking
due to sea level rise
If we can trap ten per cent of the sediments coming to Bangladesh through its rivers, we can save ourselves from the curse of sea level rise. This should not be difficult. Some sediment is deposited any way and this is how Bangladesh delta has been built. We have to take some extra measures to accelerate this sediment building process,
writes Dr AM Choudhury
THOMAS Malthus published in 1798 the ‘Essay on the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society.’ He theorised that population tended to increase in a geometrical progression (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32…) while subsistence increased only in arithmetical progression (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6…). If Malthus’s theory was correct, mankind would have suffered extinction by now. The fact is that economists including the great ones like Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and Maynard Keynes propound their theories based on existing situation and they fail to perceive the future development of society due to increased application of science and technology and other factors. For example, the present global economic depression could not be predicted by any living economists including many Nobel laureates. Nevertheless, the warnings of the economists serve one purpose, i.e. we have to change if we want to avert the impending disaster as predicted in their theories.
Malthus’s predictions did not come true firstly because of the development of contraceptive devices helped to arrest the increase of population so much so that in advanced countries the population has stabilised; it is not increasing rather in some countries there is a negative population growth. Resources on the other hand increased tremendously because of the revolution in application of science and technology typified by the industrial revolution and green revolution in agriculture. As a result, in advanced countries people instead of living an impoverished life are more prosperous than ever before. However, this is not so in the case of least developed countries. Here Malthus’s theory still has relevance. In Bangladesh, for example, the population has doubled during the last 40 years and the agricultural production though trebled during this period and there has developed quite an affluent society, but a sizeable portion of population lives in abject poverty. Moreover, arable land is decreasing and there is a limit to growth of agricultural production, industry has not advanced as much as needed.
Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world. There live 150 million people in an area of nearly 148,000 square kilometres of area including forests, rivers and wetlands giving a population density of 1,000 people per square kilometre, which is the highest in the world. If we include only the habitable area, this density will be much more. But the situation is disastrous because of the prediction that, as the coastal area of Bangladesh is too low a significant section of its land area will sink as a result of rise in the sea level due to global warming arising mainly out of the use of fossil fuels at a high rate. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that the globally averaged surface temperature is to increase by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100. The global mean sea level is expected to rise by about one metre during this period. The sea level rise occurs due to melting of ice in the Antarctic and in Greenland which are the major sources of land ice. Now as Bangladesh is a very low elevation delta some 20 per cent of its land area stands to be devoured by sea. The shaded area in the attached figure shows the land to be submerged by sea as a result of one metre rise of sea level. It is estimated that our GDP will incur a loss of 7 per cent due to this. This will have far-reaching consequences for Bangladesh. The rise of ocean water will force population to be congested into smaller areas, destroy agricultural lands, force migration and with a population density of 1,000 people per sq. mile will simply be unbearable for Bangladesh and it will face the greatest natural catastrophe in its history.
We know that the great river system of Bangladesh namely the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna carry a sediment load of two billion tonnes annually. If we can develop technology of trapping ten per cent of the nature’s gift of sediments the calamity of sinking of Bangladesh coast will be averted. This is shown in the very simple calculations which are as follows. We assume that Bangladesh coast from Khulna to Chittagong has a straight coast of 300 kilometres in length. One metre rise of sea level will penetrate to a distance of 100 kilometres from the coastal boundary as is shown in the figure though this is not straight. But we have to make some simplifying assumptions for the ease of calculation. This gives us a volume of 15km cube of water that will enter into Bangladesh as a result of one metre rise of sea level in say 100 years. Now let us see the volume of two billion tonnes of sediments that comes annually through the river systems of Bangladesh. Taking the sediment density slightly heavier than water say 1.3 gram per cm cube this volume comes out to be 1.5km cube per year. Over hundred years this comes out to be 150 km cube which is ten times the volume of water that will enter Bangladesh coastal territory due to sea level rise during this period.
Thus, we see that if we can trap ten per cent of the sediments coming to Bangladesh through its rivers, we can save ourselves from the curse of sea level rise. This should not be difficult. Some sediment is deposited any way and this is how Bangladesh delta has been built. We have to take some extra measures to accelerate this sediment building process. Massive afforestation has to take place along all the river banks, along the embankments and all vacant places. Every citizen, every government institutions and every citizen will have to take part in afforestation to trap sediments. This will generate a lot of employment. Next, cross dams at appropriate places have to be constructed to reclaim land. The government has to form a land reclamation authority for this purpose. Top experts in the world can be recruited for this purpose. The world community has pledged to help Bangladesh in its effort to fight climate change. Here is a chance to save Bangladesh from a calamity. The calculations here have been kept simple, but detailed calculations involving computer and digital elevation model will not give a much different result.
Middle East crisis: can it be solved?
by Badrul Islam
IN HIS inauguration speech, Barack Hussein Obama, the 44th president of the United States of America, said: ‘We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus, and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
‘To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the west, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.
‘To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.’
These words are refreshing indeed and mark a departure from his immediate predecessor’s moral dictum: ‘You are either with us or against us.’ Credit is also due to Obama for selecting a special envoy to the Middle East. George Mitchell is no stranger to conflicts. He received the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Bill Clinton in 1999 for brokering a peace accord in Northern Ireland. His appointment as the special envoy to the Middle East does reflect the good intentions of Obama. Change is good. Deciding to make change is the easy part; getting people to change is the difficult task.
The Los Angeles Times, on a note of optimism, wrote on January 24: ‘In his new role, Mitchell will once again be working with Tony Blair, who was British prime minister at the time of the Good Friday agreement.’ Why and how it is significant, or even positive, is difficult to understand, especially since Blair, towards the end of his prime ministership, became controversial and unpopular, both at home and abroad, due to his part in creating the turmoil in Iraq.
On Middle East peace, Obama reiterated his administration’s support for Israel and its security but also suggested Israelis would have to make some tough choices. ‘Ultimately we cannot tell either the Israelis or the Palestinians what is best for them. They are going to have to make some decisions,’ he said. ‘But I do believe the moment is ripe for both sides to realise that the path that they are on is one that is not going to result in prosperity and security for their people. And that instead, it’s time to return to the negotiating table.’ (Globalnews24.com; January27, 2009)
This sounds more realistic but what will they do at the negotiating table?
Will Mitchell be brave enough to remind the Israelis the fact that in the 19th century this land of Palestine was inherited by a multicultural population – approximately 86 per cent Muslim,10 per cent Christians and 4 per cent Jews – all living in peace? But a group of Jews in Europe decided to form a Jewish land and they considered locations in Africa and America before settling on Palestine. Hitler’s rise to power combined with the Zionist activities to sabotage efforts to place Jewish refugees in western countries, led to increased Jewish immigration to Palestine and the conflict began. (ifamericansknew.org)
In 1938 Mahatma Gandhi, widely acclaimed as the world’s most humane leader and statesman, in response to queries on the Arab-Jew question in Palestine and Hitler’s persecution of the Jews in Germany, wrote an article ‘A Non-Violent Look at Conflict & Violence: On Jews and Middle East’ (kamat.com/mmgandhi/mideast.htm).
‘My sympathies are all with the Jews,’ he wrote. ‘I have known them intimately in South Africa. The parallel between their treatment by Christians and the treatment of untouchables by Hindus is very close. Religious sanction has been invoked in both cases for the justification of the inhuman treatment meted out to them. But my sympathy does not blind me to the requirements of justice. Why should they not, like other peoples of the earth, make that country their home where they are born and where they earn their livelihood? Palestine belongs to the Arabs in the same sense that England belongs to the English or France to the French. It is wrong and inhuman to impose the Jews on the Arabs. What is going on in Palestine today cannot be justified by any moral code of conduct.
‘And now a word to the Jews in Palestine. I have no doubt that they are going about it the wrong way. The Palestine of the Biblical conception is not geographical tract. It is in their hearts. But if they must look to the Palestine of geography as their national home, it is wrong to enter it under the shadow of the British gun. A religious act cannot be performed with the aid of the bayonet or the bomb. They can settle in Palestine only by the goodwill of the Arabs. They should seek to convert the Arab heart. The same God rules the Arab heart, who rules the Jewish heart. They can offer satyagraha in front of the Arabs. They will find the world opinion in their favor in their religious aspiration. There are hundreds of ways of reasoning with the Arabs, if they will only discard the help of the British bayonet. As it is, they are co-sharers with the British in despoiling a people who have done no wrong to them.
‘I am not defending the Arab excesses. I wish they had chosen the way of non-violence in resisting what they rightly regarded as an unwarrantable encroachment upon their country. But according to the accepted canons of right and wrong, nothing can be said against the Arab resistance in the face of overwhelming odds.
‘Let the Jews who claim to be the chosen races prove their title by choosing the way of non-violence for vindicating their position on earth. Every country is their home including Palestine, not by aggression but by loving service. Given the will, the Jews can refuse to be treated as the outcaste of the West, to be despised or patronised. He can command the attention and respect of the world by being man, the chosen creation of God, instead of being man who is fast sinking to the brute and forsaken by God. They can add to their many contributions the surpassing contribution of non-violent action.’
If Mitchell can place this non-violent action plan on the ‘negotiating table’, it should enlighten both the warring parties as it comes from a honourable person who himself was a victim of the aggressive administrators in South Africa.
Obama concluded his inauguration speech with the following words, ‘Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.’
These words offer confidence that Obama could be trusted to achieve the goal of permanent peace so that the coming generations of Israelis and Palestinians could breathe fresh air and not gun powder and when a Israeli child meets a Palestinian child, the Israeli child wouldn’t say, ‘My father said you hate Jews and plan to kill us all.’ In reply, the Palestinian child wouldn’t have say, ‘I don’t know about that; my father was killed by an Israeli soldier.’
Badrul Islam is a freelance writer. bislam66@hotmail.com
The price of lentil
Your front-page report of February 10 describes a terrible story. The loss of six lives in a quarrel over harvesting lentils! That too on a piece of land that is not owned by any of the two groups in the quarrel. This is preposterous.
SA Mansoor
Dhaka
* * *
Char land is supposed to go to the landless people. But it is a far cry, as you know they are too weak to take control over it. What happens is it only entices the vulture eye of land grabbers who under the patronisation of some influential people and some political henchmen lock horn with rival groups.
The government should take decision and declare that this land must go to the people who lost their land in river erosion.
Roney
Via e-mail
Tax-free cars for MPs — again?
I join the reader, along with so many others, in being disappointed at the return of tax-free cars for MPs (February 10). Why must they have tax-free cars?
Ezajur Rahman
Kuwait
Corruption
Corruption is a common incident in Bangladesh. There is hardly any profession which is not affected by corruption. Recently, upazila elections were held and there too we witnessed corruption.
Rimon Ahmed
Via e-mail
Taskforce
India would not possibly be lukewarm in the matter of taskforce provided Bangladesh would toe the line of Delhi alone. But this would be suicidal for Bangladesh.
MT Hussain
Daffodil Online Ltd
Retaliation fears
The report that retaliation fears drive government officials off Belkuchi sends an alarming message for us all. Some government officials, including election officials and the UNO, have been on the run for security following the EC’s suspension of Belkuchi upazila polls result on allegation of severe irregularities. Is it a sign of ‘din badal’?
Faisal
Dhaka
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Next on Quick Comments
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a. Over 200 hurt as polytech students, lawmen clash: Campus rampage in seven institutes in protest at change in referred exams (New Age, January 11)
b. EC finds proofs of electoral irregularities in 50 upazilas (New Age, January 11)
c. Attempts to make Bangladesh a buffer state an unrealistic idea: Ashraful (New Age, January 11)
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