by Jayanta Kumar Basak

Global and regional weather conditions are predicted to become more hazardous than those in the present time, taking into consideration increased frequency and severity of extreme events like cyclones, floods, hailstorms and droughts. Agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavourable weather events and climate conditions. Despite technological advancements for improved crop varieties and irrigation systems, weather and climate are important factors which play a significant role in ensuring agricultural productivity. The impacts of climate change on agricultural food production have become global concerns and for that matter Bangladesh, where lives and livelihoods depend mainly on agriculture, is exposed to a great danger as the country is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.
   Bangladesh has a large agrarian base with 76 per cent of the total population living in the rural areas and 90 per cent of the rural population directly related with agriculture. Increasing food production and attaining food security in Bangladesh require sustainable growth in agricultural sector. The agro-economic contribution is 20.83 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (Bangladesh Economic Review, 2009). The agricultural sector, comprising 48.1 per cent of the country’s labour force, is already under pressure because of increase in the demand of foods and problems associated with the depletion of agricultural land and water resources. The issues of climate change make the pressure more acute.
   Rice is the staple food for 150 million population of the country. The population growth rate is 2 million per year. At this growth rate, the total population will become 233.2 million by 2050. However, she faces a tremendous challenge while providing food security to the increasing population. Therefore, it is imperative to increase rice production in order to meet the increasing demand for food in accordance with population growth, although there have been ups and downs in the domestic production of food grain. The diverse climatic phenomena including cyclone, drought, changing rainfall patterns and temperature have resulted in a significant loss in food grain production. For example two rounds of floods and devastating cyclone Sidr in 2007 and cyclone Aila in 2009 caused severe damages to agricultural production, especially the rice production. Therefore, to meet the challenges faced by the agricultural sectors from the climatic conditions requires systematic integration of environmental and economic development measures for sustainable growth in agriculture.
   A simulation study has been conducted by us to assess the vulnerability of boro rice production (58 per cent of the total rice production during 2008) in Bangladesh to see the effects of potential climate change. Effects of climate change on yield of boro rice have been assessed using DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4) in six major rice growing regions (Rajshahi was selected from Rajshahi division; Mymensingh was selected from Dhaka division; Satkhira from Khulna division; Barisal from Barisal division; Comilla from Chittagong division; and Sylhet district from Sylhet division). Soil and hydrologic characteristics (percentage of clay, silt and stones, organic carbon, cation exchange capacity, pH in water, etc) of these locations, and typical crop management practices (Row spacing, Planting depth, Genetic coefficient, Transplant age, Plant per Hill, Application of irrigation 860mm in 14 applications, Fertilizer (Urea, N) application 125 kg/ha in 3 applications, etc), traditional growing period (Planting data 15 January) and weather data (daily average maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, daily average solar radiation and carbon dioxide) in 2008 were used in the simulations. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean surface temperature is projected to rise by between 1.8°C (with a range from 1.1°C to 2.9°C for SRES B1) and 4.0°C (with a range from 2.4°C to 6.4°C for A1) by 2100. Another important climate change phenomena is the increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Depending on the SRES emission scenarios, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is projected to increase from ˜379ppm to >550ppm by 2100 in SRES B1 to >800ppm in SRES A1FI. Here we have considered the increase of carbon dioxide at a level of 50ppm, 100ppm and 200ppm with 379ppm to see its individual and combined effects on boro rice yield.
   DSSAT model predicted the maximum boro rice production for Comilla district (5427 kg/ha) and minimum was predicted for Rajshahi (3102 kg/ha) in 2008. It also found that the production in Barisal, Comilla and Sylhet districts were above 5000 kg/ha, whereas in Rajshahi and Satkhira it was below 4000 kg/ha. Boro rice production varies at different locations in Bangladesh for different climatic conditions and hydrological properties of soil (variety and management practices of Boro rice were the same for all simulations). Comparing the simulation results of rice production in terms of location, it is clear that Rajshahi is the most vulnerable rice growing region where climatic parameters play a dominant role with significant fluctuations of day and night temperatures in the winter season.
   The growth and yield of crops are directly related to the rate of photosynthesis and phrenology and their response to temperature. Optimum temperatures for maximum photosynthesis range between 25 and 30°C for rice under the climatic conditions of Bangladesh. Our findings from the model show that the effects of maximum temperature would drastically reduce rice yield at all selected locations. Boro rice yield would be reduced at a range between 2.6 percent and 13.5 per cent because of increase of 2°C maximum temperature and between 0.11 and 28.7 per cent for 4°C maximum temperature (base year 2008). The average value (average percentage change of rice yield for 6 locations) of boro rice yield reductions are 6.10 per cent and 16.0 per cent for 2°C and 4°C increased maximum temperature, respectively. Like maximum temperature, minimum temperature has also negative impacts on boro rice yield, which is estimated to be reduced by between 0.40 per cent and 13.1 per cent for the increase between 2°C and 0.11 and 15.5 per cent for 4°C minimum temperature. The average figures of yield reductions for minimum temperature are 4.2 per cent for 2°C and 8.5 per cent for 4°C. Therefore, increase in temperature has more negative impacts on rice yield compared to the minimum temperature. Combined effects of maximum and minimum temperatures are more significant compared to their individual effect on rice production in Bangladesh. Boro production is estimated to have a drastic reduction rate due to increasing maximum and minimum temperature of 2°C and 4°C and it may be from 3.2 to 18.7 per cent and from 5.3 to 36.0 per cent for rising temperature in case of both 2°C and 4°C, respectively. The average figures of yield reductions of the two temperature parameters are 10.4 per cent for 2°C and above 22.9 per cent for 4°C.
   Atmospheric CO2 is vital for photosynthesis, and rise in CO2 concentration would increase the rate of plant growth. Photosynthesis is the net accumulation of carbohydrates formed by the uptake of CO2. So it increases with the increase in CO2 (Parry, 1990). Increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration is likely to have some positive effect on rice yield, but the effect is not so significant compared to the negative effect of temperature. If the level of atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by 50ppm from the year of 2005 (IPCC reported value 379ppm), Boro rice yield would be estimated to increase by between 2.1 and 4.4 per cent and it would be between 4.0 and 9.6 per cent for 100ppm and between 5.2 and 18.2 per cent for 200ppm. The average values are 3.5 per cent, 6.5 per cent and 12 per cent for 50ppm, 100ppm and 200ppm CO2 concentrations respectively. Simulation studies were also conducted under different climatic scenarios of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. Maximum scenarios show the negative effect on rice production in Bangladesh. Scenario like Tmax 2°C+ Tmin 2°C+200 ppm CO2 has some positive effect on rice production (1.37 per cent yield increase) but those positive effects cannot be considered when compared to the negative effect of other scenarios. The most significant negative scenario is Tmax 4°C+ Tmin 4°C+50ppm CO2 (24.7 per cent yield reduced).
   Climate change threatens rice production with a significant challenge. The global warming and its consequent effect of climate change are attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of global atmosphere. Although contributing insignificantly to the causes of climate change, developing countries are expected to be the worst victims. Due to its geographic location, Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world and due to the adverse impact of climate change natural calamities are predicted to be even more intense and frequent in the coming years. Besides, the countrywide environmental condition is not the same. There are some heavy rainfall regions, some drought- prone and others flood- and cyclone-affected regions in Bangladesh. These phenomena are closely related with climatic conditions of these regions. So, selection and development of temperature- and drought-tolerant rice varieties would be a major challenge for increasing rice production. Location-wise rice varieties selection depends on the environmental and hydrological criteria. Increasing productivity requires new knowledge both in maintaining yields and improving the quality of production. The needed knowledge is primarily biological in nature. It also includes the social science and technical knowledge. An important gap lies in the lack of weather stations in many districts, where climate change is expected to have important local impacts. These impacts cannot be assessed perfectly without reliable weather data. Increased investment in regular and timely collection of weather data in local areas should be given high priority for protecting rice production in those regions. There is a need for more reliance on scientific knowledge and assessment of viable options and bridging the gap among policy makers, research organisations, agricultural extension workers and farmers. Besides, farmer-centred investment is required for adapting to new climatic conditions. Above all, these should become major priorities while integrating climate adaptation into national policies, strategies and programmes and formulating budget for agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
   Jayanta Kumar Basak is researcher at Unnayan Onneshan, an independent policy think-tank based in Bangladesh. jayanta.kumar@unnayan.org

by Saeed Naqvi

HOW President Obama’s Af-Pak policy plays itself out may become clearer against a backdrop.
   Since President Pervez Musharraf’s reputation had sunk after Lal Masjid, sacking of the Chief Justice, declaration of emergency, Washington and London began to encourage Benazir Bhutto’s candidature as prime minister because she had promised to give the US a free hand in directing the war against terror. President Musharraf could not have been dispensed with immediately because President Bush’s incantation of his great qualities as an ally against terrorism.
   When Benazir Bhutto landed in Karachi on October 18, 2007, a bomb blast very nearly killed her. She told her close advisers that she had not anticipated such anti-Americanism before returning to Pakistan. She soon realised the unpopularity of the war against terror with which Musharraf and the Americans were associated. She began to change her tune. This did not prevent her assassination on December 27.
   The deal to have a troika – president, army chief, prime minister – was struck between the Americans, General Ashfaq Kayani, President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. After Benazir’s death and Musharraf’s departure the power structure in Islamabad was a quick improvisation having neither legitimacy nor acceptability with the people – a burden America carries to this day.
   This is the real American dilemma as it embarks on an Af-Pak policy just spelt out: to find allies in Islamabad who reduce not multiply anti-Americanism.
   The ‘surge’ will be concentrated in the Pushtun areas – Helmand and Kandahar. But US drones, in coordination with the Pak army, will target the extensive Pushtun areas across the Af-Pak border.
   There will be a blowback which will aggravate anti Americanism. What will help Washington at some stage is a civilian government in Islamabad which is not seen to be an American lapdog.
   Since the Pakistan army has in recent months taken casualties in the war, the blowback may not be as severe.
   Look at the complexity. Anti-Americanism continues to grow because of the war on terror. And yet we are being told that the Pak army’s participation in the war no longer has such a negative echo among the people, that the ‘blowback’ has weakened. We have to wait and see.
   There is another piece of confusion. The US clearly makes a distinction between the al-Qaeda and the Taliban which New Delhi does not. The distinction has the effect of leaving the door open for a dialogue with ‘good Taliban’. This also leaves the Pakistan establishment with its ‘assets’ in the Pushtun areas of Afghanistan in tact.
   Yes, it is true that various Islamic groups – Uighurs, Chechens, Uzbeks and Arabs of various descriptions – did descend on Afghanistan to join the ‘holy’ war against the Soviet Union and later, in response the Osama bin Laden’s call.
   But most of these have apparently raised families in the FATA areas. Drone attacks on them will cause this obvious collateral damage. More crucially, how is a Taliban to be separated from an ordinary Pushtun?
   Under these circumstances how will Pushtun nationalism on both sides of the border be contained? (This writer has been pessimistic on this score)
   There have been in recent months facile comparisons with Iraq where the ‘surge’ is believed to have worked.
   No two situations are more dissimilar. US occupation of Iraq brought into the world’s focus for the first time a new reality: that (sixty five) 65 per cent of the Iraqi population is Shia. This majority population was so relieved of Baathist repression that, barring exceptions, they welcomed the US.
   Also, US occupation has more or less secured Kurdish de facto autonomy in the north.
   There are no such welcoming groups in either Afghanistan or Pakistan.
   For the first time in years there is an escalation in decibel level from Pakistan seeking Indian toning down of development work in Afghanistan and resolution of Kashmir to normalise bilateral relations. This possibly betrays a misreading of statements made by US military officers as hints from US government.
   New Delhi’s position is fairly straightforward. As soon as the perpetrators of Mumbai are brought before credible judicial authority, the composite dialogue can be resumed. In this framework all issues, including Kashmir, will be on the table.
   What Islamabad must realise is this: New Delhi sees balkanization of Pakistan as a frightful prospect and will go any distance to normalize with Pakistan provided Islamabad resiles from its unreasonable, maximalist positions on Kashmir and Afghanistan.
   Saeed Naqvi is a distinguished fellow, Observer Research Foundation and senior journalist

by Hasanuzzaman

IT’S been almost a year since the national elections took place in Bangladesh. Amongst many events that have occurred to date, it is worth mentioning that both the major political parties of the country have held their national council session which saw both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia ‘elected’ as the head of their respective parties.
   Before proceeding with the discussion on politics within (intra) political parties, it is worth briefly describing Bangladesh’s political system. The political system in Bangladesh can be characterised as a parliamentary democracy where executive power is exercised by the government, legislature by both the incumbent and the parliament. In Bangladesh’s parliamentary system, most of the ministers of the executive branch are drawn from the legislature in a way that the executive and legislative branches are intertwined, thereby causing fusion of power. In such a system, the head of the government becomes the de facto chief executive and chief legislature whereby not only the legislation process suffers from a legit consensus, but more fundamentally, malfunctioning within the government’s structure is by default set in motion. To add to the dilemma, the scope of accountability is choked in such a unicameral system.
   It needs to be mentioned here that in the context of separation of powers between the judicial and executive branches of the government, it was ultimately implemented on November 1, 2007 by the caretaker government. However, to what extent this separation has helped the judiciary branch become impartial and independent, remains open to criticism given the recent developments in terms of release of convicted and prosecuted criminals.
   To make matters worse, the overwhelming power control from the top to bottom has paralysed the mid-level bureaucrats to function independently. Moreover, to minimise the scope for resistance at the bureaucratic level, the civil service recruitment process has been politicised favouring candidates who demonstrates loyalty to the party’s interests in power, to work for the government, thereby destroying the very concept of checks and balances in the government organs.
   To support this claim, in recent times, around 250 aggrieved officials have filed applications with the Ministry of Establishment for review of the recent promotions. They strongly believe massive irregularities and nepotism have influenced the promotion process by which about 526 officials at various levels were reportedly deprived of promotion. HT Imam, adviser to the prime minister, has not yet provided a direct answer and has instead mentioned that different types of considerations worked in the cases of promotion and posting in the top bureaucracy, including joint secretary, additional secretary and secretary, where competition was very tough.
   Who is responsible for regulating this intra-bureaucratic competition? This needs to be immediately and fully answered in order to establish some accountability about such an issue of moral concern. Not surprisingly, such malfunctioning has given birth to a system where experienced, honest and professional bureaucrats have been deprived of serving their country.
   Now we turn to analyse the interplay between different factors which directly influences the dynamics of intra-party politics. The formation of political parties is a ‘necessary evil’ for running a representative democracy, where combined resources, financial capital and social networks, are the determinant factors to get candidates both nominated and subsequently elected. The practice of selling nominations to persons with the financial power to take forward the ‘party’ interests is not unheard of in Bangladesh. These candidates consider their election to public office as an investment, through which to earn huge dividends. In such a party-based system, allowing self-interest to trump national priorities is a common practice.
   Dr Kamal Hossain’s ‘Making democracy work: What we need to do’ elaborated the adverse impact of intra-party politics on the democratic system. Hossain, one of the few fortunate enough to stand by Bangabandhu on many occasions both during and after the liberation war, admits that Bangladesh has had bitter experiences with the fruits of victory, which have been lost due to the selfish pursuit of power by the predators. According to the renowned lawyer, for people to become and remain empowered, institutions need to be built, and checks and balances established in order to prevent fusion of power, leading to disempowerment and marginalisation of people. He argues that though a free and fair election is essential, it is not sufficient to ensure a working democracy, unless democratic institutions are strengthened.
   On the issue of intra-party politics, Hossain observed that potential candidates need not fulfil any criterion of qualifications or how they were equipped to serve their constituents; rather, on their ability to spend in the elections. In terms of the national elections 2008, the Awami League’s landslide victory cannot be attributed to a single person or a factor; on the contrary, it was the entire team, comprising ex-government officials from the ranks of deputy secretary to additional secretary who were either coerced into retirement or sacked, coupled with the then prevailing perception of the party being the lesser devil, helped Sheikh Hasina become once again the prime minister of Bangladesh.
   Nevertheless, with a dysfunctional parliament and a non-accountable government, social and economic reform as a basic national goal, has thus remained a far-fetched concept. As Dr Kamal Hossain puts it, ‘People cannot resign themselves to the fate of the Greek hero, Sisyphus, who was engaged in pushing a boulder to the top of the mountain. But every time he reached the mountain top, the boulder would roll down again.’ He then goes on to rightly inquire: ‘Must we be condemned to suffer the fate of Sisyphus?
   Dynastic politics is here to stay. In both cases of the political parties’ elections, it would have been more appropriate to hold a ‘secret ballot’ to ensure a truly democratic outcome. Various quarters have raised concerns as to how the two major players in Bangladesh’s political landscape had been elected. Only they know how long they would not be willing to surrender their power baton to the new generation or someone with the awareness, experience and knowledge of today’s globalised and integrated politico-economic scenario. This does not necessarily imply that they would be unemployed, since they would remain the chiefs of their respective parties. Both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia would then have to take on the greater responsibility to guard the guards who are meant to protect our welfare and interests.
   Sonia Gandhi’s credibility today can be attributed to her ability to choose someone who would work in India’s interest, not for the Congress alone. Perhaps the future leaders of both the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party can take lessons from Rahul Gandhi who has refused to enter into mainstream politics and concentrate on building the Congress’s unity and cohesiveness, especially at the grassroots level. Indeed, Rahul can be seen in the future to be truly a leader who is informed of the people, chosen by the people, and someone who is determined to work for his people. Bless democracy!
   Hasanuzzaman is a researcher. hasanuzzaman1984@hotmail.com

Right to self-defence

If lawmen has the right to self-defence (as stated by the AL minister and as reported in your newspaper) then why did they criticise the previous government so vehemently and called so many hartals and caused enormous damage and destruction to the country? And also why isn’t the media that vocal against their crimes as they were before?
   Nasir
   Via e-mail

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