Editorial
Ban on guidebooks and beyond
THE Appellate Division of the Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a High Court ban on printing, distribution and sale of guidebooks for primary and secondary students. A majority of teachers and educationists had for long demanded a complete ban on such guidebooks on the ground that these actually have adverse impact on students’ education and smother their creativity. Moreover, in material development, the publishers of these guidebooks often cut corners. The materials are more often than not developed by students and unemployed youth although the publishers claim that these books have been written by either ‘an expert headmaster’ or ‘a group of experts’. Consequently, the standard of these books is, as a former chairman of the National Curriculum and Textbook Board is quoted in a report front-paged in New Age on Thursday as saying, ‘far from being up to the mark.’ Hence, the Appellate Division’s verdict is indeed welcome.
The education minister expressed his satisfaction with the verdict and said the government would soon launch a drive against the people involved in printing, distribution and sale of guidebooks as ‘there is no legal bar against taking action against them.’ Some officials of the curriculum and textbook board also hinted that mobile courts would be set up in a day or two for a drive against the sellers and publishers of guidebooks. Interestingly, the education minister sought to trace a link between printing of guidebooks and the failure in timely printing and distribution of textbooks. If so, the students and guardians may expect that there would be no more glitches in textbook printing and distribution in the coming years. However, there are reasons to believe such expectations would be far-fetched. Guidebooks or no guidebooks, successive governments seem to have made it a habit of defaulting on their promises to complete printing and distribution of textbooks before the academic year begins. This year, too, it looks likely that the incumbent administration will fail to complete printing and distribution of textbooks on time.
Be that as it may, there appears to be two contradicting schools of thought vis-à-vis guidebooks for primary and secondary students. While a majority of teachers and educationists feel these books ‘stop students from thinking and hold back their analytical and creative faculty’, there are some who believe ‘a significant number of students need guidebooks or notebooks.’ There may be merit in the argument posed by the latter group. However, the fact that some students need ‘guidebooks or notebooks’ tends to indicate that the teachers may not be doing their jobs properly. Already, there have been allegations against a section of teachers that they invest more time and energy in private tuition than they do in the classroom. Hence, the responsibility of the education authorities would not end with enforcing the ban on guidebooks. They would now have to ensure that teachers are doing their best so that the students are adequately prepared for their examinations.
A commendable directive
from JS panel
THE parliamentary standing committee on the local government, rural development and cooperatives ministry on Wednesday ‘asked the Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority to shut immediately the channels that carry city wastes into the river Buriganga.’ According to a report published in New Age on Thursday, the chairman of the committee told journalists that WASA had also been asked to adopt alternative waste management so as to protect the river from pollution. The Buriganga, often termed the lifeline of the capital Dhaka, itself needs a lifeline, as unabated encroachment and pollution have virtually consigned it to deathbed, so to speak. Hence, the parliamentary standing committee’s directive is indeed welcome. However, there are very few reasons for the people, especially those who have campaigned relentlessly to save the Buriganga, to rest assured; after all, such directives, be it from a parliamentary standing committee or the judiciary or the government, have gone by default more often than not.
In fact, if the existing laws of the land were stringently enforced, the Buriganga wouldn’t have been in such a sorry state in the first place. The Environment Conservation Rule, 1997 clearly says that every industrial unit should have its own effluent treatment plant, without which it will not get electricity or gas connection. In line with the rule, the immediate-past military-controlled interim government had directed the factories to install effluent treatment plants by October 31, 2007. As has been reported in the media on different occasion, not all industrial units have complied with the deadline. As for the Buriganga, many industrial units still dump their wastes directly into its waters. Similar is the scenario as regards encroachment of the river.
Over the years, different quarters have demanded that the government should take specific measures – restoration of all rivers and canals linked to the Buriganga, demarcation of the riverbank, updating of the list of illegal occupants, sustained action for demolition of illegal structures, etc – to contain destruction of the river. The authorities have also time and again talked tough about legal actions against the riverside factories that do not have effluent treatment plant and discharge effluents, chemical and otherwise, directly into the river. Regrettably, their tough talk has hardly translated into effective actions. If the authorities concerned are at all sincere about saving the Buriganga, they should act with utmost haste and earnest, keeping it in view that experts have expressed their concern that the river water may have already become polluted beyond redemption. They need to realise that every moment of inaction on their part pushes the river ever closer to death.
Climate change, food security
and agro-economic growth
by Jayanta Kumar Basak
CLIMATE is one of the major controlling factors for the well-being of the inhabitants of the world. Global climate has been changing due to natural forces as well as anthropogenic activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land use changes in recent decades. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, atmospheric carbon dioxide, solar radiation, etc are closely linked with agriculture production. Therefore, changing climatic conditions would be a major concern for rice production because fluctuations in these climatic parameters could lead to a significant decrease in yield.
Potential increase in global temperature due to climate change and inter-annual climatic variability and its impacts on rice production would leave impacts on food security and economic growth of a country. Bangladesh, where lives and livelihoods depend mainly on agriculture, is exposed to a great danger as the country is among most vulnerable to climate change.
Total rice production in Bangladesh was 10.32 million tonnes in 1975-76 when the country’s population was 79.90 million and cultivated rice area was 10.32 million hectares. Now, the country is producing 27.32 million tonnes on 10.71 million hectares to feed more than 140 million people (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and Department of Agricultural Extension, 2007). Around 73 per cent of the rice land contributes to about 85 per cent of the total rice production. Transplant aman (T aman) had a vital role in total production up to 1995-96; since 1995-96, boro has been playing a significant role in the total production. Boro production gradually increased due to increase in cultivation area, with high yield varieties, modern technology and improvement in irrigation facilities. In 2007-2008, boro rice contributed to above 58 per cent of the total rice production, whereas T aman and aus were 34 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. It is clear that rice production depends to a considerable extent on boro production.
Rice cultivation areas have remained mostly unchanged in the last few decades but there is a change in the production of different types of rice. Rice areas of T aman and aus have gradually decreased since 1989-90. Population of Bangladesh is increasing at a rate of two million every year and the total population will be 233.2 millions in the next 40 years, if the current trend continues. Our estimation is that Bangladesh will require more than 55 million tonnes of rice by 2050 as per current demand. During this time total rice area will have shrunk due to pressure from cultivating high value crops, urban and industrial development and expansion of human settlement.
Overall rice production in Bangladesh has increased at an annual rate of 0.4582 million tonnes, boro 0.3654 million tonnes, T aman 0.1388 million tonnes, whereas aus production decreased at a rate of 0.0463 million tonnes in 1971-2005. If this rate continues for years such as 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, according to our research, there will be a huge amount of rice shortage – 5.08, 6.02, 7.80 and 10.50 million tonnes respectively. Therefore, food security problem will be more acute in 2050. There would be, according to our simulation, about 10.50 million tonnes of rice shortage in 2050, which is about 38.43 per cent of the total rice production in Bangladesh in 2006-07 (rice production in 2006-07 was 27.32 million tonnes).
Temperature greatly influences not only the growth duration but also the growth pattern and productivity of rice crops. During the growing season, the mean temperature, and the temperature sum, range, distribution pattern, and diurnal changes, or a combination of these may be highly correlated with grain yields. The effects of temperature on yield of boro have been assessed using the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4) model for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Our study has been conducted on the basis of IPCC fourth assessment report (temperature is projected to rise in a range from 1.8°C to 4.0°C by 2100) and we found a considerable yield reduction (1.5%, 2.5%, 4.4% and 5.4%) in the years specified (base year 2008). There would be a shortfall of about 2.59, 2.24, 2.62 and 3.43 million tonnes in boro production in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively only for temperature effect. Consequently, there could be a rice shortage of 7.68, 8.25, 10.40 and 13.93 million tonnes in the targeted years for the combined effect of temperature and population growth. Shortfall in rice production in 2050 could be 13.93 million tonnes, or about 50.10 per cent of the total rice production in 2006-07.
In Bangladesh rapid population growth makes it difficult for rice production to keep pace with the rising demand for food. According to the BBS 2006-07, the total rice demand in Bangladesh was 29.77 million tonnes, whereas production was 27.32 million tonnes, with a shortfall of more than 2 million tonnes. Therefore, the demand for rice of a significant section of the population was not fully met that year and the condition could get worse due to pressure from population growth. At the same time climate change could make the problem more acute.
Rice demand for a single person is 580gm per day or 211.73kg per year, but rice production was not sufficient in 2006-07. Our simulation suggests that there could be a shortfall of about 10.50 million tonnes in 2050 and if it is converted to rice demand for people, more than 4.5 crore people, or more than 35 per cent of the total population in 2006-07, might be left out. When the temperature effects are considered with population growth, the rice shortage could go up to 13.93 million tonnes in 2050, depriving more 6.5 crore people, which is higher than 45 per cent compared to the total population in 2006-07.
Agriculture remains the most important sector of the Bangladesh economy. Its contribution to the national GDP was 20.83 per cent and employed 48.1 per cent of the workforce. In 2007-08, the agricultural sector contributed 6.99 per cent of the total export earning. For the past nine months in 2009, it increased $651 million. Accounted value of the amount is 5.59 per cent of the total export earning during that time (Bangladesh Economic Review, 2009).
These rice shortages may have a serious repercussion for the economy in future. Our research suggests that a reasonable amount of GDP may be affected by these rice shortages. The shortages will be 0.15 per cent of the total GDP and 1.5 per cent of the agricultural and forestry GDP in 2007-08. On the other hand, about Tk 1.06 thousand crore might be lost in 2050 due to the increasing population and temperature which is more than 0.2 per cent of the total GDP and 2 per cent of the agricultural and forestry GDP of 2007-08. It should also be noted that only boro is considered to see the effects of increasing temperature on its production and overall it impacts on rice production, and consequently, human rice demand and economic conditions in this country. These figures might be high, if other crops (T aman and aus rice), wheat, potato, etc and other agricultural sectors such as fishers, forestry, etc are considered, which directly or indirectly are affected by changing climatic states.
It is imperative to increase rice production in order to meet the growing demand for food emanating from population growth. However, there have been ups and downs in the domestic production of food grain. The diverse climatic phenomena like cyclone, drought, changing rainfall patterns and temperature have resulted in a significant loss of food grain production every year. Therefore, the challenges faced by the agricultural sectors from the climatic conditions and population growth require systematic integration of environmental and economic development measures for a sustainable growth in agriculture.
The sustainable increase of rice production and agro-economic growth rate will require efforts to enhance the capacity of rice production system to adapt to global climate change as well as to mitigate the effects of rice production on global warming. Improving boro and T aman production and protecting the declining rate of aus rice production and developing more heat tolerant rice varieties and management practices would be major challenges for increasing rice production in Bangladesh. Technical options for adaptation and mitigation are available, which should be properly applied in agricultural sectors. Policy support to rice research and development to develop and transfer appropriate and efficient technologies will be vital for the realisation of such measures for sustainable rice production. Above all, public awareness of the impact of climate change on the agricultural production deserves priority consideration.
Jayanta Kumar Basak is researcher at Unnayan Onneshan-The Innovators, an independent policy think-tank based in Bangladesh. jayanta.kumar@unnayan.org
Take me to your climate leader
by Amy Goodman
‘Politicians talk, leaders act’ read the sign outside the Bella Centre in Copenhagen on the opening day of the United Nations climate summit. Inside the convention centre, the official delegations from 192 countries, hundreds of NGOs (non-governmental organisations)—an estimated 15,000 people in all—are engaging in two weeks of meetings aiming for a global agreement to stave off catastrophic global climate change. Five thousand journalists are covering the event.
Outside, Copenhagen has been transformed into a vibrant, global hub of climate-change activism, forums and protest planning. In one square, an ice sculpture of a polar bear melts day by day, and an open-air exhibit of towering photos displays ‘100 places to remember that will disappear.’
While the US Environmental Protection Agency this week designated carbon dioxide as a threat to health, President Barack Obama has said that there will not be a binding agreement from this summit. Many see the US as a key obstacle to it and are seizing the opportunity to assert a leadership role in what environmental writer and activist Bill McKibben has described as ‘the most important diplomatic gathering in the world’s history.’ At stake are not only the rules that will govern entire economies, driven for well more than a century by fossil fuels, but the very existence of some nations and cultures, from the tropics to the arctic.
The Republic of Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, sent 15-year-old Mohamed Axam Maumoon as a climate ambassador. After attending the Children’s Climate Forum, he told me, ‘We are living at the very edge ... because our country is so fragile, only protected by the natural barriers, such as the coral reefs and the white sandy beaches.’
Most of the 200 inhabited islands of the Maldives are at most 3 feet above sea level, and projected sea-level rises would inundate his country. Even at his age, Axam comprehends the enormousness of the threat he and his country face, and starkly frames the question he poses to people in the industrialised world: ‘Would you commit murder, even while we are begging for mercy and begging for you to stop what you’re doing, change your ways and let our children see the future that we want to build for them?’
Farther north, in Arctic Village, Alaska, indigenous people are fighting to survive. Sarah James is an elder and a chair member of the Gwich’in Steering Committee. I met her this week at Copenhagen’s Klimaforum09, dubbed ‘The People’s Summit’, where she told me: ‘Climate change, global warming is real in the Arctic. There’s a lot of erosion, because permafrost is melting. ... And last summer, there was a fire all summer long, no visibility. Last spring, 20 villages got flooded along the Yukon. Sixty villages within the Yukon area never got their fish.’
Emerging economies like China and India are growing rapidly and are becoming top-tier carbon emitters, yet none approaches the per capita emission levels of the United States. With just 4 per cent of the world’s population, the US produces about a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gases. The model for the past century has been clear: If you want to escape poverty, grow your economy by industrializing with fossil fuels as your main source of energy. Yet the wealthy nations have not been willing to pay for the environmental damage they have caused, or significantly change the way they operate.
Author Ross Gelbspan says poverty is at the root of the problem: Take care of poverty, and humanity can solve the climate crisis. He says retooling the planet for a green economy can be the largest jobs program in history, can create more equality among nations, and is necessary, immediately, to avoid catastrophe.
Tuesday, between sessions at the Bella Center, in the cafe area packed with thousands, a group of activists dressed as space aliens, in white spacesuits and with green skin and goggles, walked in. ‘Take us to your climate leaders!’ they demanded. ‘Show us your binding treaty!’ In the rarefied diplomatic atmosphere of the summit, such antics stand out. But the calls from the developing world, both inside and outside the summit, to cut emissions and to compensate countries, from Africa to Asia and Latin America, for the devastating effects of global warming they did not cause are no laughing matter.
Protesters are planning confrontations as more than 100 world leaders descend on Copenhagen next week. The battle cry at the Klimaforum09 is ‘Mobilise, Resist, Transform.’ The people are leading, while the politicians talk.
Truthdig.com, December 10. Denis Moynihan contributed research to this column. Amy Goodman is the host of ‘Democracy Now!’, a daily international TV/radio news hour airing on more than 800 stations in North America. She is the author of ‘Breaking the Sound Barrier’, recently released in paperback and now a New York Times bestseller.
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