VILLAGERS were looking forward to the annual fair scheduled in a few days just before the Bengali new year. So far, the weather had been favourable and they hoped that the harvest would be quite good. ‘That is of course if there are no hail storms,’ said Bipulesh Chandra Roy a farmer of the village. The beginning of Baishakh-the first month of the Bengali calendar falling on April 14-is marked with fierce nor’westers accompanied by hail, which is particularly damaging to the crops.

   Bipulesh is one of the few educated farmers of the village. Bipulesh says he diversifies his crops and makes sure that there is a reasonable degree of rotation on different patches. ‘Otherwise the land loses its fertility and you need more inputs to grow the same amount of grain.’ He says, pointing towards some low lands adjacent to a large pond nearby, ‘Even 10 years, we did not have to do anything to grow paddy on these patches. One literally had to sprinkle seeds and let it be for about four months. Nowadays, it has become impossible and unimaginable without fertilisers.’

   He says the pattern of rainfall has also changed in the recent years. ‘It is almost like it rains when it should not and does not rain when it should. I planted some potato, as part of the rotation thing and also because it makes for a good cash crop. But after the rain and the heavy fog during the winter, the potatoes came out all wrinkled as if they had shrunk back into their skin.’

   Bipul says the prolonged floods are becoming a standard phenomenon. ‘It used to be like this that every five or ten years you would lose the aman paddy to floods, hypothetically speaking. But I have lost the aman paddy three times in the last five years, because the low lying areas remain under water for at least a month if not for the entire duration of the crop season.’ He says the aman harvest will soon become a lucky exception rather than it being the other way round.

ZONE
   Karatoya-Bangali Floodplain
   
   CHANGES
   * Changes in rainfall pattern (increased in monsoon and decreased in winter)
   * Increased temperatures in monsoon and winter
   * Humidity
   
   POTENTIAL IMPACTS
   * Flood
   * Land Erosion
   * Cold waves
   * Drought