BEYOND THE APPARENT
Remembering Jahanara Imam:
the distraction of ‘dialogue’
NM Harun
It is a truism that any authoritarian intervention like the present emergency rule in countries like ours which have legacies of democratic struggle will eventually be replaced by an elected government. But of immediate interest now is to observe the behaviour of the political leaders and parties: how they carry on the urgent democratic struggle of the people during this difficult emergency period
The issue is the same but the perspectives are different. The Ghatak Dalal Nirmul Committee (Committee for the Elimination of the Killers and Collaborators of 1971) held a mock trial of the war criminals on March 26, 1992. Sixteen years later, on March 21, the Sector Commanders’ Forum held a national convention of the freedom-fighters to press home their demand for the trial of war criminals.
The 1992 mock trial took place in defiance of a government ban on its holding and thousands of people, as if reliving the victorious spirit of the War of Independence and Liberation, gathered at the Suhrawardy Udyan.
The 2008 convention was held with permission from the government, the participants having agreed to accept the restrictions of the emergency laws, within the four walls of the Bangladesh-China Friendship Convention Centre.
The mock trial was a mass mobilisation and it sentenced Golam Azam to death on the charge of committing war crimes. The then government brought charges of sedition against 24 persons who were leaders of the Nirmul Committee and acted as judges in the trial. The sedition charges were eventually dropped after four years, but no government, since 1992, held trial of the war criminals, taking the cue from the mock trial and the subsequent publication of a list of 15 war criminals by the Nirmul Committee.
The leaders of the Sector Commanders’ Forum have not invited the wrath of the incumbent government. The convention was neither a mass mobilisation nor an event to catalyse a people’s movement but was essentially a plea to the incumbent government to initiate the trial of the war criminals. A 16-point declaration of the convention, however, covers almost the whole gamut of social, political, legal and administrative aspects of the issue of the war criminals and collaborators.
The movement of the Nirmul Committee, getting immured in the quagmire of power politics, petered out because of the lack of political support.
What may be the prospects this time around? In their initial enthusiasm for the ‘reinvention’ of the nation, the chief adviser, the chief election commissioner and the army chief spoke in favour of trying the war criminals. Those were the days when the powers that be seemed to believe that a radical restructuring of the polity would be a cakewalk. They now obfuscate on the issue of the trial of war criminals. There are apparently no empirical grounds to believe that the incumbent government, which twice denied permission to the Sector Commanders’ Forum to hold the national convention, will be so morally imbued or moved as to initiate the trial of the war criminals.
And in the absence of political mobilisation, the possibility or extent of success of the populist programmes of the forum, like the one-minute blackout and one-minute candlelight vigil on March 25-26 night, or installation of ‘hate pillars’ depends on the spontaneous participation of the people. Under the prevailing conditions when the incumbent government has totally demobilised, as well as demoralised, the people through the Emergency Powers Rules, such programmes are likely to have only symbolic importance.
There is yet nothing to be euphoric about or to celebrate the achievements of the Sector Commanders’ Forum. But the very fact that the movement of the Nirmul Committee for the trial of the war criminals has been resurrected at a time when the country has virtually been turned into a political wasteland in the wake of the proclamation of emergency on January 11, 2007, is a great contribution to a noble cause.
Jahanara Imam, the founding convener of the Nirmul Committee, in her last message to the nation, written from her deathbed in 1994, exhorted her compatriots:
‘My fellow warriors,
‘You have been fighting the evil forces of Golam Azam and his war criminals of 1971, along with the detractors of a free Bangladesh, for the last three years. As a nation of Bangalis, your unity and courage has been unparalleled. I was with you at the start of our struggle. Our resolve was to remain in battle until we had achieved our objective. Stricken with the fatal disease of cancer, I am now facing my final days. I have kept my resolve. I did not leave the battle. But I cannot stop the inevitable march of death. Therefore, I once again remind you of our resolve to fight until our goal is attained. You must fulfil your commitment. You must stand united and fight to the very end. Even though I will not be among you, I will know that you –– my millions of Bangali children –– will live in a free Golden Bengal with your sons and daughters.
‘We still have a long and arduous road ahead. People from all walks of life have joined this battle. People from different political and cultural groups, freedom-fighters, women, students and youths have all committed themselves to the battle. And I know that there is no one more committed than the people. People are power. So I commit the responsibility of the fight to bring Golam Azam and the war criminals of 1971 to justice and to continue to champion the Spirit of the Liberation War to you –– the people of Bangladesh. For certainly, victory will be ours.’
A sideshow of the bigger power game: The initiative of the Sector Commanders’ Forum is, however, a sideshow of the bigger power game, the matrix of which is getting more complex by the day. The same was the case when the Nirmul Committee pioneered the movement for the trial of the war criminals. That movement lost its way in the Byzantine power struggle between the then ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League. The situation now is worse.
The so-called caretaker government of Fakhruddin Ahmed, on the goodwill of which the Sector Commanders’ Forum apparently relies, is as vulnerable as a sitting duck, presiding over a crumbling administration, unmanageable economic chaos and nerve-wracking political uncertainties. It is sandwiched between the messy attempts at political engineering by the powers that be and the increasing restiveness among the political parties in response to the arbitrariness of the Emergency Powers Rules.
And beyond the public view and outside the political purview is the question of the mid-term readjustment of the emergency rule in view of the scheduled retirement of army chief General Moeen U Ahmed, who has come to personify and symbolise the spirit of the January 11 emergency.
So the idea of ‘dialogue’ as a key to end the stand-off between the government and the political parties is being touted to allow time and scope to the powers that be to replenish their arsenal for political engineering.
What is the agenda of the ‘dialogue’? And who will talk to whom?
Even the leaders of the Awami League and the BNP, who in the past danced to the tune of the powers that be, have of late started responding to the demands of the grassroots party activists to start agitation or movement to release the detained leaders, end emergency, hold general elections and, above all, to protest against the price spiral.
Under the present circumstances, any AL or BNP leader in their discussion with the government will now put the release of their leaders at the top of the agenda. And if the powers that be reach any kind of agreement — be it on the issues of political reform, election, post-election ratifications of the activities of the Fakhruddin government or even about the budget and administrative policies — with any political leaders other than Hasina and Khaleda, it will be as worthless as a counterfeit coin.
It is a truism that any authoritarian intervention like the present emergency rule in countries like ours which have legacies of democratic struggle will eventually be replaced by an elected government. But of immediate interest now is to observe the behaviour of the political leaders and parties: how they direct the urgent democratic struggle of the people during this difficult emergency period.
NM Harun is contributing editor of New Age. He can be reached at: badrun123@dhaka.net
The new face of global hunger
by Ban Ki-moon
THE price of food is soaring. The threat of hunger and malnutrition is growing. Millions of the world’s most vulnerable people are at risk. An effective and urgent response is needed.
The first of the Millennium Development Goals, set by world leaders at the UN summit in 2000, aims to reduce the proportion of hungry people by half by 2015. This was already a major challenge, not least in Africa where many nations have fallen behind. But we now face a perfect storm of new challenges.
The price of basic staples – wheat, corn, rice – are at record highs, up 50 per cent or more in the last six months. Global food stocks are at historic lows. The causes range from rising demand in major economies like India and China to climate and weather-related events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts that have devastated harvests in many parts of the world. High oil prices have increased the cost of transporting food and purchasing fertiliser. Some experts say the rise of biofuels has reduced the amount of food available for humans.
The effects are widely seen. Food riots have erupted in countries from West Africa to South Asia. Communities living in countries where food has to be imported to feed hungry populations are rising up to protest the high cost of living. Fragile democracies are feeling the pressure of food insecurity. Many governments have issued export bans and price controls on food, distorting markets and, presenting challenges to commerce.
In January, to cite but one example, Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai appealed for $77 million to help provide food for more than 2.5 million people pushed over the edge by rising prices. In doing so he drew attention to an alarming fact: the average Afghan household now spends about 45 per cent of income on food, compared with 11 per cent in 2006.
This is the new face of hunger, increasingly affecting communities that had previously been protected. And, inevitably, it is the so-called ‘bottom billion’ who are hit hardest: people living on one dollar or less a day.
When people are that poor and inflation erodes their meagre earnings, they generally do one of two things: they buy less food, or they buy cheaper, less nutritious food. The end result is the same – more hunger and less chance of a healthy future. The UN’s World Food Programme is seeing families who previously could afford a diverse, nutritious diet dropping to one staple and cutting their meals from three to two or one a day.
Experts believe that high food prices are here to stay. Even so, we have the tools and technology to beat hunger and meet the goals of the MDGs. We know what to do. What is required is political will and resources, directed effectively and efficiently.
First, we must meet urgent humanitarian needs. This year, the WFP plans to feed 73 million people globally, including as many as 3 million people each day in Darfur. But to do so, the WFP requires an additional $500 million simply to cover the rise in food costs. (Note: 80 per cent of the agency’s purchases are made in the developing world.)
Second, we must strengthen UN programmes to help developing countries deal with hunger. This must include support for safety-net programmes to provide social protection, in the face of urgent need, while working on longer term solutions. We also need to develop early warning systems to reduce the impact of disasters. School feeding – at a cost of less than 25 cents a day – can be a particularly powerful tool.
Third, we must deal with the increasing consequences of weather-related shocks to local agriculture, as well as the long-term consequences of climate change – for example by building drought and flood defence systems that can help food-insecure communities to cope and adapt.
Lastly, we must boost agricultural production and market efficiency. Roughly a third of food shortages could, to a significant degree, be alleviated by improving local agricultural distribution networks and helping to better connect small farmers to markets. UN agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the International Fund for Agricultural Development, meanwhile, are working with the African Union and others to promote a ‘green revolution’ in Africa by introducing vital science and technologies that offer permanent solutions for hunger.
But that is for the future. In the here and now, we must help the world’s hungry hit by rising food prices. That means, for starters, recognising the urgency of the crisis – and acting.
— UNIC
Factors affecting bank interest
rate spreads
In the final instalment of a three-part series, Shammik Gupta and Masud Khan make some recommendations based on the analysis of the general factors determining interest rate spread and the specific factors determining interest spread in Bangladesh
EMPIRICAL evidence suggests the existence of asymmetric information influencing the interest rate spread through the lagged effect of credit costs. Reduction of uncertainty in the credit environment should lead to a narrower spread, albeit with a lagged effect.
While there is no direct empirical evidence of the spread changing due to interest rate volatility, we note that the analysis covers a period of political and economic reform, a time that is customarily marked by a higher degree of uncertainty. The slight uptick in the spread over ’07-’08 likely reflects this uncertainty.
Two crucial and controllable data points are not currently available for analysis. These relate to operating costs and to non-interest income. While seeming to be controllable, these are often linked to structural market realities and the cost of doing business, and may well differ by organisation depending on the market segment covered. While outlining recommendations, we shall consider the structural nature of these elements.
Reduction in the asymmetry of information has best been addressed by greater financial and information transparency. The first specific step taken to provide greater information benefits to lenders in other markets has been the implementation of a high standard of disclosure via corporate governance and accounting standards. The adoption of a code of conduct for corporate entities marked one of the early steps in the path of financial reform in India and a similar code can be adapted to the Bangladesh environment. The code relates to disclosure of both financial and management information.
The second specific step that can be considered is a credit information bureau (not just the binary CIB report provided by the Bangladesh Bank). A credit bureau is a company that provides credit information on individual borrowers to help assess credit worthiness. Interest rates then act as a form of price discrimination based on the credit rating, rather than being borne across the board by all borrowers. Credit bureaus collect and collate personal financial data on individuals and businesses from data furnishers that include businesses, utilities, debt collection agencies, public institutions, and the courts (i.e. public records) that a consumer or business has had a relationship or experience with. Bangladesh could implement regulations similar to the United States Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act, to safeguard the rights of borrowers in terms of negative information, accuracy of or issues related to disputed information, limitation on uses of the information and access to information. The current Credit Information Bureau report furnished by the Bangladesh Bank provides a binary ‘defaulter/non-defaulter’ listing and as such has very little impact from a spread perspective (as it only comes into play if and when someone defaults). On the other hand, the credit bureau information described in this paragraph will not just provide the after the fact binary information, but will collate data which will point to the likelihood or probability of default.
Furthermore, in order to help banks better manage interest rate volatility, market participants must be encouraged to adopt best practices in treasury management including segregation of duties, appropriate position limits, stop loss monitoring and off-market transactions. Regular risk reporting and monitoring of asset-liability gaps will arm banks with the tools to better manage liquidity risk resulting in finer spreads. Structurally, hedging mechanisms such as forwards and futures may be introduced with the boards of the banks responsible for certifying the adoption of controls to participate in these derivatives. Most countries have started with short-term derivatives such as forward rate agreements and interest rate swaps before moving to more sophisticated options and longer dated transactions once banks demonstrate their adherence to operational and risk controls.
We now look at the impact of operating costs and non-interest income on the spread. For instance, operating costs have a positive correlation with interest rate spreads. While the study does not have industry-wide figures, the key components of managing operating costs are through people, processes and technology. Banks have benefited immensely from moving up the process maturity model as defects and costs of rework reduce dramatically, pre-test detest detection climbs and there are order of magnitude improvements in productivity.
As firms climb the process capability model, productivity increases greater than 4x, rework costs drop to one-tenth and delivered defect reduce to 1 per cent of original defect levels. These add significantly to cost savings and therefore the ability to manage rates much more effectively. This framework for productivity improvement has been successfully employed in manufacturing and service sectors in neighboring countries.
The last component of the spread is contributed by non-interest income. Banks that provide value added services will require less emphasis on the centre of the plate loan offerings. Traditional fee and commission based revenue streams can be broad-based to encompass consumer, corporate and investment banking. Typical fee-based revenue streams in retail banking arise from advisory; wealth management services including the sale of insurance and mutual fund products; payment products including electronic bill payments and credit and smart cards and in more developed markets through retail broking. The corporate clientele yield fee-based revenue arising out of traditional trade finance, but that can be enhanced through custody, treasury and hedging products, corporate advisory and capital raising activity. New products like syndicated debt, primary capital market offerings, securitisation and debt and equity placements are other sources of fee-based income. As capital markets develop, secondary market broking, international fund raising and corporate trust services also provide additional fee income.
The authors recognise that the issue of spread management must be tackled at both a systemic as well as at the individual bank level. Some of the recommendations around credit and information and interest rate hedging require market mechanisms and regulatory clearance. Some of the recommendations must be tailored to suit individual banks and take into account their product strengths, markets catered to and growth strategies.
Shammik Gupta and Masud Khan are Managing Partners in Artha Shastra Applied Economic Consulting, a banking and legal consulting firm with offices in Bangalore and Dhaka (www.asaec.in)
Of nukes and ‘impotent nations’
Arthur C Clarke took an extremely dim view of both smoking and nuclear weapons, and wanted to see them outlawed. But he was aware that both tobacco and nukes formed strong addictions that individuals and nations found hard to kick. Years ago, he had coined the slogan ‘Guns are the crutches of the impotent’. In later years, he added a corollary: ‘High-tech weapons are the crutches of impotent nations; nukes are just the decorative chromium plating,’ writes Nalaka Gunawardene from Colombo
‘DO YOU know about the only man to light a cigarette from a nuclear explosion?’ Sir Arthur C Clarke was fond of asking his visitors a few years ago.
Clarke, the celebrated science fiction writer and space visionary who died on March 19 aged 90, loved to ask such baffling questions.
In this instance, the answer was Theodore (Ted) Taylor, a leading American nuclear scientist who designed atomic weapons in the 1950s and 1960s. Apparently he just held up a small parabolic mirror during a nuclear test – the giant fireball was 12 miles away – and turned light into heat.
‘The moment I heard this, I wrote to Taylor, saying “Don’t you know smoking is bad for your health?”’ Clarke added with a chuckle.
In fact, he took an extremely dim view of both smoking and nuclear weapons, and wanted to see them outlawed. But he was aware that both tobacco and nukes formed strong addictions that individuals and nations found hard to kick.
Years ago, Clarke had coined the slogan ‘Guns are the crutches of the impotent’. In later years, he added a corollary: ‘High tech weapons are the crutches of impotent nations; nukes are just the decorative chromium plating.’
Living in the Sri Lankan capital Colombo, the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey was acutely aware of tensions between neighbouring India and Pakistan – both nuclear weapon states.
British-born and calling himself an ‘ethnic human’, Clarke offered a unique perspective on nuclear disarmament. His interest in the subject could be traced back to his youth, when he served in the Royal Air Force during Second World War. As a radar officer, he was never engaged in combat, but had a ringside view of Allied action in Europe.
Shortly after the nuclear bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended the War, he wrote an essay, ‘The Rocket and the Future of Warfare’. In that essay, first published in the RAF Journal in 1946, he said: ‘The only defence against the weapons of the future is to prevent them ever being used. In other words, the problem is political and not military at all. A country’s armed forces can no longer defend it; the most they can promise is the destruction of the attacker....’
Arthur Clarke continued his advocacy against the weapons of mass destruction to the very end. The lure and folly of nuke addiction is a key theme in his last science fiction novel, The Last Theorem, to be published later this year. He completed working on the manuscript, co-written with the American author Frederik Pohl, only three days before his demise.
From his island home for over half a century, Clarke was a keen observer of the subcontinent’s advances in science and technology. He personally knew some of the region’s top scientists – among them Indian space pioneers Vikram Sarabhai and Yash Pal, and Pakistan’s Nobel Laureate Abdus Salam.
Shortly after India carried out nuclear weapons test in May 1998, Clarke issued a brief statement saying: ‘Hindustan should be proud of its scientists – but ashamed of its politicians.’
He chided the mass euphoria that seemed, for a while at least, to sweep across parts of the subcontinent. He signed the statement as ‘Arthur C Clarke, Vikram Sarabhai Professor, 1980’.
That was a reference to three months he spent at the Physical Research Laboratory in Ahmedabd, in western India, lecturing about peaceful uses of outer space. It was the only time he held the title ‘professor’.
Clarke’s direct associations with India went back further. In the early 1970s, he advised the Indian Space Research Organisation on the world’s first use of communications satellites for direct television broadcasting to rural audiences. Preparations for the Satellite Instructional Television Experiment Project were underway when India carried out its first ‘peaceful explosion’ of an atom bomb in 1974.
‘I can still remember Vikram telling me how Indian politicians pleaded with him to “build a teeny-weeny (nuclear) bomb”,’ Clarke recalled in an interview in 2002.
He returned to the subject when delivering the 13th Nehru Memorial Address in New Delhi in November 1986, which he titled ‘Star Wars and Star Peace’. He critiqued the Strategic Defence Initiative (which President Reagan called ‘Star Wars’) – a nuclear ‘umbrella’ over the United States against missile attacks. Clarke argued that SDI was conceptually and technologically flawed, and that its pursuit could hurt America’s lead in other areas of space exploration.
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi rejoined from the chair: ‘Forty years ago, Dr Clarke said that the only defence against the weapons of the future is to prevent them from being used.... Perhaps we could add to that, we should prevent them from being built. It’s time that we all heed his warning....I just hope people in other world capitals also are listening...’
While campaigning against nuclear weapons, Clarke was equally concerned about all offensive weapons. ‘Let’s not forget the conventional weapons, which have been perfected over the years to inflict maximum collateral damage,’ he said in a video address to the 50th anniversary celebrations of the Pugwash Movement in October 2007. ‘If you are at the receiving end, it doesn’t matter if such weapons are “smart” or stupid…’
As tributes to Arthur C Clarke from all corners of the planet confirm, he commanded the world’s attention and respect. His rational yet passionate arguments against warfare were heard, though not always heeded in the corridors of power and geopolitics.
For such people, he had the perfect last words from his own hero, HG Wells: ‘You damn fools – I told you so!’
Nalaka Gunawardene is a Colombo-based writer and journalist who was spokesman for Sir Arthur C Clarke in the past decade. He blogs at http ://movingimages.wordpress.com and may be contacted at alien@nalaka.org
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