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EC’s dilemma
   The Election Commission is now facing a new dilemma. The problem, however, was not altogether unexpected. The commission has reportedly planned to hold a daylong meeting on electoral reforms next month with the top leaders of the political parties with whom it was holding talks separately on the issue since early September. These meetings were described in the media as the ‘first round of talks’ on electoral reforms. Such talks with the BNP (the group led by acting president Saifur Rahman) scheduled earlier last week was contested by the pro-Khaleda group and the High Court stayed it for a month.
   Meanwhile, almost all political parties are now saying that if the Election Commission invites Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh to the planned meeting next month on electoral reforms, they will not attend. A major English-language daily quoted several leftwing political leaders as saying that Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh happens to be the ‘anti-liberation force’ and had committed war crimes during the 1971 liberation war. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the only political party that was elected to form the government twice (actually thrice including the short-lived one in 1996 to include the non-party caretaker government system in the constitution) since 1991, is yet to make its view on this issue public. Interestingly, acting president of Jatiya Party Barrister Anisul Islam Mahmud was quoted as saying that his party has also informed the commission ‘about their stance of Jamaat’ and he said ‘the Commission is supposed to inform us its decision on the matter after considering the constitution and existing laws.’
   The Election Commission’s idea was to present the final draft of the proposed electoral reforms before the nation’s top politicians to get the feedback. The draft was prepared on the basis of the talks the commission held with the leaders of different political parties. While participating in the dialogue with the commission, most of the political parties had demanded not to register the ‘war criminals’ and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh and disqualify them from contesting in the forthcoming polls because of their role during the liberation war. The chief election commissioner and the two commission members from time to time suggested that in the absence of any constitutional provisions to support the demand, it would not be possible for them to implement the same.
   The contention of these political parties is that the leaders and members of Jamaat and its front organisations had actively collaborated with the Pakistani military junta during the liberation war in 1971 and they were also directly responsible for the carnage of the intellectuals on the eve of the Pakistani army’s surrender on December 16, 1971. Those intellectuals were the cream of society and many of them were capable of thinking freely and thereby could spark debates independently on any major national issue. Sensing the inevitable defeat of the Pakistani forces, the schemers of the carnage wanted to deprive the new independent state of Bangladesh of the services of the brilliant minds of its children. Hence this heinous conspiracy was hatched.
   Both the two major parties – the BNP and the Awami League – have to share the blame for Jamaat’s emergence as a major election-oriented political party in Bangladesh. Other than the BNP and the Awami League, only the Jatiya Party of former president HM Ershad and Jamaat have substantial following and managed to get a sizeable number of their candidates elected to the parliament. The Awami League and Jamaat had participated in the 1986 elections under Ershad while the BNP boycotted the same. The Awami League’s boycott of the poll would have put Jamaat on the mat. Besides, the Awami League had allied itself with the Jamaat in its agitation against the BNP government in early 1990s and helped it to legitimise its claim of being a democratic political force. However, while trying to distance themselves from Jamaat, the AL leaders maintained that though they were coordinating political agitation with Jamaat against both the governments of Ershad and the BNP, unlike the BNP, they never shared platform with them.
   
   BNP’s Achilles’ heel
   The Awami League, on its part, explains the accusation as part of its political strategy for whatever it is worth, but it would be difficult for the BNP to shrug off its part of the blame. The BNP had entered into an electoral alliance with Jamaat and Islami Oikya Jote prior to the 2001 elections and after its landslide victory formed the four-party alliance government. The late president Ziaur Rahman, the founder of the BNP, has also been accused of giving legitimacy to Jamaat by allowing it to function as a democratic political party. Even some of the senior leaders of the BNP and a large number of their followers opposed the party’s decision to form an alliance with Jamaat. Former BNP standing committee member and one of the BNP founding-members Col. (retired) Oli Ahmed while quitting the party in 2006 had accused the BNP of losing its character by forming government with Jamaat. But like the Awami League, the BNP’s leadership too claims that the alliance was forged based on larger political strategy and it was also an attempt to uniting the nation, to heal old wounds.
   The situation, however, took a dramatic turn following the absurd claim made by some of the Jamaat stalwarts that 1971 war was not a liberation war or Muktijuddha but a civil war and that there is no existence of war criminals in Bangladesh. While the question of the trial of the war criminals always loomed large in the horizon, a group of smart thinkers in Jamaat perhaps thought it an opportune moment to go for a counteroffensive to establish their rights. Whatever may have been the reason or justification, the move has clearly backfired and reopened a dormant issue making it all the more difficult for the BNP to plead for any concession for the Jamaat adherents and extricate themselves from the accusations made by Oli and others. They are yet to say if they too would boycott any meeting at the Election Commission together with Jamaat if others did. Incidentally, many senior BNP leaders appear to suggest that responsibility for the decision to forge alliance with Jamaat lay squarely on the party’s powerful chairperson Khaleda Zia. She hardly listened to any argument from anybody, they tend to imply.
   The Election Commission’s decision to formally call the reformist group of the BNP led by former finance minister and BNP standing committee member Saifur Rahman for a dialogue on its electoral reform measures has also caused problem for the party. The dialogue scheduled for late November has now been stayed for a month by a High Court rule after admitting the writ petition filed by the pro-Khaleda Zia group protesting against the decision. The chief election commissioner and other members of the commission have strongly defended their decision to invite the BNP reformist group saying they acted after consulting the lawyers and said that they stood by their decision. Now the ball is in the court of the High Court and the commission’s move to speed up its work has again suffered a jolt.
   
   EC’s final drama
   The chief election commissioner, Dr ATM Shamsul Huda, at a dialogue with the Workers Party leaders at the commission on Tuesday obliquely mentioned that the practices such as the BNP chairperson’s firing of Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan who served as the party’s secretary general for 12 years without going through any procedure should be discarded from the party constitution. Without reforming the BNP constitution, the party would not be registered at the commission. This rather blunt statement from the chief election commission appears to give credence to the statement issued by the BNP’s new secretary general Khandker Delwar Hossain when the commission sent formal invitation letter to the BNP reformist group’s acting secretary general Major (retired) Hafizuddin Ahmed to attend the dialogue at the commission. Delwar Hossain is now in jail for his alleged role in causing violence near the late former president Ziaur Rahman’s mausoleum recently.
   According to the commission’s proposed reforms to the existing electoral laws of the country, no political party will be allowed to contest national elections without registration. The reform proposals included among others annual council sessions of political parties, election of office bearers by ballot, transparency in maintaining party funds and donations. It is not intelligible why the chief election commission had to specifically mention the BNP and its constitution while discussing electoral reforms as well as the power and authority that the party constitution provides to the party chairperson. The JP constitution has given almost identical power to the party president. While the Awami League constitution states that elections of the party officials through ballot, the practice has long been discarded. By singling out the BNP and its constitution, he has simply provided another opportunity to the leaders of the BNP’s pro-Khaleda group to lash out at the Election Commission.
   It would have been wise and safe for him, the commission and also the electoral reforms had he simply mentioned the basic proposals contained in the EC draft as mentioned in the foregoing paragraph as the basis for registration of the political parties. Whoever would conform to the basic reforms would get the registration and that is it. Unnecessary talks always lead to problem.

Climate and weather in Bangladesh have been the sources of weakness and strength since time immemorial. Her agriculture, fisheries, livestock and forests and other facets of life depend on the rainfall and temperature to a great extent. On the other hand, natural hazards such as drought, excessive rain and flood had been a worry for the local rulers, even centuries ago. A ruler had instructed, as the oldest terracotta inscriptions found in Bangladesh suggests, that the state treasury resources be used to rehabilitate the affected people and farmers. And this was at a time when the population was miniscule compared to what it is now.
   The wrath of natural hazards continues to influence life of Bangladesh. Even a cursory glance at the events unfolding during the recent past years would indicate that extreme natural events like cyclones, tornadoes, floods and droughts have been inordinately frequent and their severity unprecedented. Such an increased extent of vulnerability is a matter of great concern for our future. And we have recently seen and directly experienced what it could be when things go to the extreme.
   This year we had two major floods, drought in some places and a severe cyclone in a short span of only three months. The climate system around Bangladesh has changed along with its manifestations. The advent of climate change has been announced with a big and loud bang. But it is not only these extreme events, the footprints of climate change are being seen through the inter-seasonal and inter-year weather uncertainties. Already the farmers are getting baffled about the timings of when to plant crops and what to do when the plant growth shows erratic behaviour. The age-old experience and traditional knowledge have suddenly lost their effectiveness. It will be a cardinal crime if society at large globally as well as nationally including the governments, people, civil society and the business community ignore these wakeup calls of climate change. We and the rest of the global community must shun inaction, simply as we don’t have the luxury of an alterative if we want to protect the future of our children and their children and thereafter.
   This year Mother Nature has been particularly cruel to Bangladesh. Several extreme natural events occurred successively. These included:
   * Two floods within a time gap of about six to eight weeks
   * Drought in some flood-hit places, especially in the north of the country immediately following the flood
   * The dreaded cyclone Sidr ravaging the coast line with a maximum wind speed of 240km/hour, accompanied by tidal surges, followed the last flood
   While the government and the people are trying to adjust to these disasters, the untold human sufferings, death, hunger, disease and penury that have been caused in their wake had been mind-boggling. And when the dead are buried and the sick are being healed, those who are left behind have to pick up the threads of life. And they do with true grit.
   * In between the floods, resolute farmers had started planting the fields anew. But they stared in disbelief at the fresh onrush of flood water that had washed away the new plantation. But they have again gone back to their fields and planted other crops. All these happened thrice in the span of as many months.
   * In many Sidr-hit areas, farmers would have started harvesting around this time. The harvest has become bitter as the wind and the tidal surge during the cyclone have caused substantial damage to the standing crops.
   * In many places, sources of freshwater for drinking were lost or been contaminated.
   * The loss to fishery, livestock and the forest, added to the, already staggering losses.
   * Most structures including houses, schools, shelters, local government offices, and building for business have either been razed to the ground or been severely damaged and become unusable without major repairs.
   * And books for students being wet have literally fallen apart delaying the start of schools wherever conditions otherwise permit.
   * When one looks at parts of Sundarban from the air, it appears that a giant scythe has cut through it uprooting the trees completely in many places while severely damaging them elsewhere within the forest. The conservation infrastructure in the Sundarban has in many places simply ceased to exist. This included forest offices, sources for fresh drinking water and boats the only means of transport to the main land.
   Here too, the people are trying to begin their lives again. But the challenges are enormous. In many of the cyclone-hit areas, the aman rice crop just damaged is the only cereal crop in the whole year. The prospects of planting other crops are dim before the next crop in a year’s time. Massive efforts at rehabilitation, therefore, assume overwhelming importance. A pertinent question, therefore, is: ‘What are the prospects for Bangladesh in a situation with fuller manifestation of climate change?’
   
   The challenge
   The greatest development challenge that Bangladesh faces is lifting some 50-55 million people out of poverty in the shortest possible time. This is going to be an extremely tough proposition because climate change will and has already started to or may
   disrupt, some times violently, agricultural production, raising food deficit from the present 2.8-3.0 million tonnes to 4.7m tonnes in two decades’ time; the consequent macroeconomic and social dislocations will be mind boggling
   wash away people’s home and hearth and livelihood due to flood, and storm surges and many may also die prematurely – although Sidr is only the latest in the list, note that these water-related events led to $150m of damage per such event during the past few decades. The number of affected persons due to wind surges had been nearly 500,000 per such storm;
   People’s health will be under severe stress due to increased pathogenic and viral activities – epidemics had been rare for some time past but may revisit us again as the climate change creates environmental conditions conducive to the growth of pathogens. The consequences may be severe for the future health of the people.
   Infrastructure will be lost and threatened, industries will suffer; power generation will be under severe stress
   To top it, all the predicted SLR will complicate any intervention to adjust and adapt as well as displacing people en masse
   We all need to take up this challenge for a biologically, economically and socially secure future for the country’s citizens. The people and the government are ready, despite the odds, to take up that challenge.
   
   What have we done till now
   Bangladesh has tried to clarify some of the relevant technical and socio-economic issues for adaptation as well as mitigation. These include the National Adaptation Programme of Action exercise which helps us to have certain ideas for intervention
   Previously we have done other exercises including the submission of the Initial National Communication, Mitigation Study (ALGAS) and US-sponsored study and ADB-sponsored study on vulnerability. These have helped us in understanding the challenges.
   Particularly NAPA has devised a set of programmes and projects which we might take up immediately. But we also need to think in a more structured and coordinated manner across sectors to secure our long-term future.
   Apart from studies, we have succeeded in developing salinity resistant rice varieties and released then to the farmers. Development of other varieties resistant to drought and pest attacks is in the process to reduce risk factors in agricultural production.
   Disaster management mechanisms are being streamlined and pre-disaster preparedness has become much better than before which may explain the comparatively far lower death toll from cyclone Sidr.
   A SAARC food bank is in the planning stage.
   
   What we need to do
   Let us begin with the aftermath of Sidr. Sundarban has acted as the giant windbreaker otherwise the human and property losses could have been much higher. But this means that Sundarban has to be rehabilitated in some form to bring it back to its former natural splendour. Mind you this is one programme which is both adaptation to and mitigation against climate change. This will necessitate massive but very carefully designed programme with least disruption to the plant and animal bio-diversity therein.
   Making up for the loss of infrastructure and, more particularly, housing becomes a major issue in the reconstruction process. Various financing mechanisms including risk coverage schemes may have to be devised for the purpose.
   Climate resilient water management is the key to solving or minimising many of the threats to lives and livelihood, be it in agriculture or in human health. We already have an elaborate National Water Management Programme. This also includes some consideration of climate change. But probably these will have to be revisited and programme designs and implementation have to be somewhat changed or revised to take account of climate change on a here and now basis.
   A major issue is food security. This issue, of course, crops up in many places. One major idea that always comes up is building up a regional dynamic reserve to ensure food when crop failures may occur due to one reason or another. Further the world trading system will have to be climate change-sensitive which I am not so sure that it is now.
   Research for generation of new technology and adapting or modifying existing ones for agricultural production in crops, fisheries and livestock will need to be geared up. But apart from the need for financial resources, there may be obstacles which I will bring up shortly.
   Waterborne diseases may increase and break out in epidemic forms. One way of adaptation could be to put in place a system of prevention and cure. For that matter, can we have special wards in all hospitals to treat gastro-enteric diseases so that all those who are affected do not have to come to Dhaka as happened during the last flood?
   How can we implement a programme of drinking water and sanitation to prevent the occurrence of epidemics? We need to devise and implement such programmes taking into view, of course, the other environmental problems such as arsenic.
   We need to be more careful now in planning for and managing the aftermath of the natural hazards such as cyclones so that they do not turn into human disasters. These may include, for example, in places where cyclone shelters do not exist, building water-resistant community-owned and managed pits where food, water and other necessary items Including students’ books may be put and sealed before the storm and water surges. Once storm and surge weakens, the food, water and other items may be distributed within the community even before relief arrives.
   The issue of shelters for livestock has been raised. This was a part of the design of the multi-purpose cyclone shelters project after the cyclone of 1991. We may have to revisit the idea and its implementation, given the last one and a half decade’s of experience.
   Complaints have been raised regarding the repayments of loans under various micro-credit programmes of NGOs. We may need to think of alternative financing and refinancing mechanisms. Whether there should be a moratorium on loan repayments to NGOs by their clients and how the NGOs may be compensated for their losses are matters that may need to be investigated properly by financial experts before any action.
   We have seen how Sundarban has acted as a giant windbreaker. This has reinvigorated the idea of coastal afforestation. The Ministry of Environment and Forest will give a fresh look to the coastal afforestation projects and their efficient functioning. In doing so, careful attention will be given to the suitability of species for such afforestation so that they do not get easily uprooted during storms or water surges.
   While we are not obligated as a nation to curb emission of greenhouse gases and we are among the most vulnerable but least responsible for the human-induced climate change, for other reasons such as ensuring the rights of people to energy, we need to invest in all kinds of conventional and non-conventional, mainly renewable energy. This will help in reaching electricity in the remote areas and also putting in place a community radio system for easy communication during emergencies.
   The cyclone warning system may also have to be revisited so that people can easily understand them and contextualise them with their locality. Thus, the Met Department shall have to clearly tell the people what it means in terms of vulnerability to them, in between any two points in space about which it is now providing warnings.
   All these will mean increased and new access to financial resources and technology where your role will be of immense value.
   
   Way forward: the road through Bali
   Globally nations must come to an agreement on curbing greenhouse gas emission in an effective way in the shortest possible time – this is for the future, Post-Kyoto or whatever.
   Adaptation is the other big issue, probably the most important for many of us in the least developing and developing countries.
   We are going to Bali and shall take part in the deliberations as in other years but with a renewed vigour.
   Negotiations will continue for operationalising the Adaptation Fund and the LDC Fund, but their size is small and it may yet take some time to get access to them. In any case, the problem for us is huge to be managed under those funds alone.
   Many of you, however, have been helping us through finding for development of several sectors which are likely to be affected adversely due to climate change as I have already spoken about.
   What we request from you is that while you continue to do sectoral funding think of how the programmes may be recast to take into account climate change and how climate resilience can be built into them so that several years down the lane the investment is not literally washed away or get scorched by the sun.
   The government is now trying to integrate the sectoral programmes with climate change. But to do this with the investment programmes some ideas of which I have already given, certain institutional strengthening will also be needed in all the sectors which are likely to be affected one way or other. Major sectoral stakeholders are agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock, forestry), water resources, health, local government, etc.
   I note that several development partners are now active in areas where climate change is a major issue. We need to coordinate and integrate them in a way that maximum beneficial impacts follow from them. The principles of Paris Declaration for harmonisation of aid may be a guidance in such coordination of aid for charting a path of climate resilient development in Bangladesh.
   I request you to consider one particular idea. This relates to the establishment of an International Centre for Adaptation in Bangladesh which will provide a forum to study aspects of the vulnerability of countries to climate change, scope and constraints to adaptation, develop relevant databases, provide a network among countries and professionals, and arrange for suitable training particularly to developing country stakeholders.
   Finally, two more points. First, the issue of intellectual property rights should not be used as an argument against transfer of technology or making it prohibitively costly. Note that when drug companies were requested to supply generic drugs for HIV/AIDS at low cost, many of them objected or declined. But now many of those same companies have understood what bad publicity it has earned them and they are now more responsive to the demand than before. Secondly, while I am describing all the things that need to be done, I am never suggesting that the government alone or even mainly be doing these. The business community and the private sector must do their share and probably the bigger share. We need to devise market-based ways and means for them to join hands will all others.
   Let us try to build a future in a way that while the wolf (in the form of climate change) at the door can not be kept at bay, be made as tame as possible.
   Slightly abridged text of the speech Dr CS Karim, adviser, the agriculture, fisheries and livestock, and environment and forest ministry, delivered on November 25.

Economy in crisis

That the economy is going through the most critical phase of our history hardly needs to be pointed out. The local office of the Asian Development Bank paints a grim picture of Bangladesh economy. According to the ADB so far as its economy is concerned, the country is ‘passing through the most critical and challenging period’ since its independence. There may be some debates over whether it is the ‘most critical period’ or ‘one of the most critical periods’. Against the above backdrop, it is heartening that the ADB, without asking the government to cut subsidies, has committed generous assistance as easy loan to help carry out the task of post-cyclone rehabilitation work. In sync with the ADB help, some other donor countries have also pledged outright grants. Such gestures of goodwill will certainly help the government in grappling with the challenges it faces to put the economy on track. The best guarantee of averting an economic crisis is to increase domestic production.
   Gopal Sengupta
   Canada

The economy as described by the country director of the ADB has become “........” due to twin flood and cyclone coupled with the jihad against corruption. It is the business community who seemed to be on the receiving end during the first phase of this government. But now things have changed. Convicted businessmen guilty of ill-gotten money are getting bail on regular basis and they are generously contributing to different fund-raising programmes. The government also seems to make the businessmen feel ‘you are with us’ and has formed Bangladesh Better Business Forum. The irony is the chief adviser who promised zero tolerance approach to all kind of corruption including corruption of the business people is heading a committee constituted by the same business people.
   Saif
   Dhaka
   

It appears that the Jote Sarkar is still alive. Apart from few cosmetic changes in the administration, the same faces continue to occupy the key positions. The vice chancellors of all the public universities and the principals of all the government medical colleges, the DG health and DG family planning —the most trusted and confident of the previous Jote Sarkar — still occupy the same positions. This also includes the principal of Khaleda Medical College. He is the president of the Doctor’s Association of Bangladesh (DAB)-the medical wing of the BNP. Very interesting!
   Shamim Ahmed
   Gulshan, Dhaka

It’s good that Pervez Musharaf has finally stood down as the head of the army, but he has appointed his ‘blue eyed’ buddy Kiyani as the army chief. The duo will prove to be more dangerous than the sole ‘Musharaf’. Bhutto and Sharif will remain as viewers and will not be able to come into the main political stream. The only thing that has changed is from now on Musharaf could be able to reduce international pressure on him. Nice trick.
   Zubair
   On e-mai

Next on Quick Comments

a. Silent famine just round the corner, say economists: Situation worse than what ADB representative said, say politicians (New Age, November 28) b. Vengeance on vegetation: Sundarban needs at least 20 years to recover from Sidr damage (New Age, November 28) c. Govt seeks food grains from dev partners (New Age, November 28) d. Musharraf’s farewell to arms (New Age, November 28) e. Donors want relief to be channelled through NGOs (New Age, November 28) f. ‘Tobacco kills 57,000 a year’ (New Age, November 28)