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Growth estimation under question
Political govt obsessed with statistical artefact: CPD

Staff Correspondent

A local think-tank has questioned the official estimation of the country’s growth in gross domestic product and other economic indicators, pointing out certain weaknesses in the national income accounting process.
   In an analysis on the state of Bangladesh economy in 2005-06 and outlook for 2006-07 fiscal, the Centre for Policy Dialogue nullified the GDP calculation methodology and referred to discrepancies between revised and preliminary estimates as well as non-availability of figures on employment, investment and industrial production.
   After assuming office, the BNP-led alliance government made downward revision of the GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2000-01 to 5.27 per cent from 6.04 per cent estimated during the previous Awami League regime
   ‘It is a matter of concern whether the successive governments really want to make updated and accurate data public,’ Debapriya Bhattacharya, executive director of the centre, said while releasing the analysis at a press briefing on Saturday.
   He explained that lack of updated data had not created problems not only for the people and analysts, but also for the policymakers who remained in the dark while working on various issues.
   Blaming political considerations for influencing growth estimation from time to time, Debapriya added that the GDP growth was revised upward during the fiscal year 2003-04 when it showed the first-ever above 6 per cent growth in the Bangladesh economy.
   The economist questioned whether the provisional figure of GDP growth for the current fiscal year, estimated at 6.7 per cent, would be changed significantly, should a new government assume office after the upcoming general elections.
   He termed the current GDP growth rate a ‘statistical artefact’ as the government has been ‘pre-occupied very much’ with the growth. In this context, he referred to a study, saying that the country’s economic growth could post more than four per cent automatically even without any growth in real economy because of the domination of service sector.
   Also, the gap between provisional and revised estimates made by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has widened — a reality that raised question about the quality of data. ‘There is no dependable alternative information for cross checking of the data,’ he said.
   Historically, the economist pointed out, revised GDP estimates have been lower than preliminary estimates as it happened in eight cases out of 11 fiscal years between 1995 and 2005.
   ‘We don’t have any updated data on employment generation and even investment,’ Bhattacharya continued. ‘Despite commitment, there is no quarterly estimation of GDP growth and the divisional and district level accounting of GDP was abolished since 2001.’
   Bhattacharya also expressed his frustration at the non-functionality of a review committee that the government earlier formed to examine the lacking and make recommendation on how to improve the national income accounting.
   The economist said quantum index of production is usually taken as proxy to calculate industrial contribution to GDP. ‘But the base-year is 1988-89 which is 17 years old and both the data collection method and sectoral weights are outdated,’ he added.
   ‘From both accounting and analytical reasons, there is a need to come out from this recent “hype” about the high economic growth and redirect our attention to the nature of the growth and its consequence on employment and incomes of the poor,’ read the centre’s paper on the economic update.



CAB demands consumer-friendly budget
Staff Correspondent

Consumer rights activists on Saturday demanded a consumer-friendly budget instead of a politically influenced one for the fiscal 2006-07 focusing on citizens’ real interests.
   They said that at the moment people felt worried because they apprehended that the price of all essentials might go up after the budget. In past the announcement of every budget was followed by price hikes without any failing.
   Activists said these at a discussion on consumer-rights protection act and the upcoming budget for the FY 2006-07 at the Reporters Unity organised by the Consumers Association of Bangladesh.
   Kazi Faruq, general secretary of the association, alleged that the government prepared budget without any discussion with the consumer rights representatives and it led to a consumer-hostile budget.
   He further alleged the government, dashing the hopes of millions, dillydallied in enacting the Consumer Rights Protection Law.
   The draft of Consumer Rights Protection Law was approved in policy level at the cabinet meeting in 2004 and was sent to the ministry of law for scrutiny.
   After one year the draft law was sent to the commerce ministry and again sent to the cabinet for the final approval. But the cabinet meeting rejected it six months ago.
   The activists said that they had talked with the commerce minister recently about the law and that the minister agreed with them about the necessity of the law.
   Waliur Rahman, director of the Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs, said in his speech, ‘We want a discussion on the consumer rights protection law in the parliament in the budget session’.
   He also urged the government to allocate a symbolic amount in the revenue budget for the protection of consumer rights.
   Quoting the necessity of the law, Waliur capped upon all political parties to include the consumer rights issue in their election manifestos.
   Economist Anu Mohammad, professor of the Economics Department of Jahangirnagar University, said a well-organised syndicate of businessmen, who had high connection with politics and leaders, were increasing the price of essential products.
   The government itself was responsible for price hike of energy and gas by way of signing high-cost agreements with the foreign multinational companies, which were against the interests of public, observed the economics professor.
   He said consumer rights activists should include in their agenda the demand of right to know information.
   Borhan Ahmed, president of the Consumer Association of Bangladesh, presided over the discussion programme while Dr Shah Azam, professor of department of marketing of Rajshahi University, played the role of moderator.
   Dr Badiul Alam Majumder, country director of the Hunger Project, Dr Atiur Rahman, chairman of Unnayan Samunnay, and Nasrin Lubna, a PHD fellow on consumer rights protection, took part in the discussion.


Canadian envoy wants Dhaka to make
best use of duty-free market access

Sees corruption a major roadblock
to economic future

United News of Bangladesh . Dhaka

The Canadian envoy has stressed that Bangladesh, which is enjoying virtually open market access to the North American country since 2003, could maximize its trade benefit by increasing its clothing export volume and further diversifying export basket.
   Canadian imports from Bangladesh in 2005 remained almost steady at Canadian dollar 490 million while exports to Bangladesh were valued 102 million, the Canadian High Commissioner Barbara Richardson said, while talking to the news agency.
   She has identified corruption as a major roadblock to Bangladesh’s economic future.
   ‘People are tired of it. It’s a biggest barrier to the future of this country…Unless corruption is stopped, Bangladesh can never move forward to its desired destination,’ she noted.
   Canadian companies have already made investment in oil-and-gas sector and are now eyeing a number of other sectors like information communication technology and power, the envoy listed.
   Asked about Niko embroilment over two blowouts at Tengratila and gas pricing with Petrobangla, she said the Canadian government has urged Bangladesh government to reach a fair and transparent settlement with the Niko Resources.
   She said the Canadian government encourages participation of Canadian companies in the development of oil and gas industry here but ‘does not get involved in private commercial disputes’.
   Richardson said there is a significant increase in CIDA budget for Bangladesh, one of its 25 partner countries.
   She said CIDA spent approximately $58 million last year in this country as direct bilateral assistance, which was earlier about $38 million annually.
   Canada is also a major contributor of funds delivered by the multilateral funding agency World Bank to Bangladesh, she noted.
   Replying to a question about restricting issuance of visa for Bangladeshi nationals, she said in past five years 11,278 visitor’s visas and 2,320 student visas were issued. In 2004 alone, some 1,608 immigrant visas were given to Bangladeshi nationals.
   The envoy said Canada offers an Off-Campus Work Permit Programme for eligible foreign students at public post-secondary institutions permitted to work for up to 20 hours a week during the school year and full time during study break.


FTA with Bangladesh carries
certain fears: KCCI chief

BDNews . Dhaka

A visiting Pakistani business delegation chief Saturday was skeptical over the bilateral free trade agreement between Dhaka and Islamabad saying it carries ‘certain fears and apprehensions’.
   ‘SAARC and SAFTA made no headway till now.
   I don’t know what would happen in the case of SAFTA. Bilateral FTA has certain problems. There are fears and apprehensions,’ said Haroon Farooki, president of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
   Asked what led to his fear and apprehension, Farooki said, ‘Maybe, Bangladesh has reservation as it is surrounded by its neighbour. There might be strategic and geopolitical reasons with the neighbour.’ He did not specify the neighbouring country.
   The 12-member KCCI business delegation led by Farooki is now in Bangladesh on a six-day visit.
   ‘Let the authorities (government) do their job...private sector can have a separate start as the areas were already identified,’ he said at a press conference at the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry auditorium. The DCCI senior vice-president, Hossain Khaled, also spoke at the conference.
   The Karachi Chamber president said they are looking forward to having joint ventures in textile, leather, chemicals, engineering goods, non-traditional items, small and medium enterprises.
   Farooki said they are going to have meetings with ministers, BOI, EPB, BGMEA, BTMA and Small & Cottage Industries Association here during their stay.
   The delegation has invited Bangladeshi manufacturers to take part in a Karachi trade fair in July to explore market opportunities for their products in Pakistan. The Karachi Chamber will organise the three-day exhibition titled ‘My Karachi’ during July 29-31.


Yahoo drops CEO salary to $1
Reuters . San Francisco

Yahoo Inc said on Friday its board of directors has shrunk Chairman and CEO Terry Semel’s annual salary to $1, while boosting his overall future compensation through stock options and grants. In a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, Yahoo said its board had approved two days before a long-term executive retention plan where Semel will receive $1 for each of the next three years through 2008.
   His salary in each of the past three years was $600,000.
   Yahoo is not unique among Silicon Valley companies in deemphasizing salary and linking compensation to company performance in the form of share bonuses.
   Since 2004, Google Inc, Yahoo’s biggest rival, has paid $1 in salary to its top executives—co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and CEO Eric Schmidt—compensating the three billionaires instead through stock options and grants.
   The world’s largest Internet media company said Semel stands to benefit from a discretionary bonus in the form of a fully vested stock option of up to 1 million shares a year, priced at Yahoo’s closing trading price the day of the grant.
   The actual amount of the bonus will be based annually on the performance of the company and be approved by the board.
   As a retention incentive, the board granted Semel a stock option to buy 6 million shares of Yahoo’s common stock at an exercise price of $31.59 per share, the closing price of the company’s common stock on May 31, the date of the grant.
   The stock option vests annually over a three-year period, in progressively higher increments of 25 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, as long as Semel remains with the company.
   It can be exercised over seven years, subject to conditions. If, however, there is a change in control at Yahoo, Semel’s bonus options for that year would vest instantly.
   In 2005, Semel exercised options on 7 million shares, which after deducting the prices paid for the stock, netted him $173.6 million, according to previous regulatory filings.


Malaysians eager to invest
in Bangladesh

Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha . Dhaka

A visiting Malaysian trade delegation on Saturday expressed its interest in making joint venture investments in various potential sectors including telecommunications, energy, agro- based industry, infrastructure, halal food, plastic and automobile spare parts industries.
   The proposals were made by an 11-member delegation of Malaysian South-South Association at a briefing at the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry conference room.
   ‘We are here with a package of investment proposals in various potential sectors as our government encourages cross border investment.
   We prefer Bangladesh as an investment destination considering its huge potentialities,’ said Jalilah Baba, director of Malaysia’s Domestic Investment Promotion Division, who is leading the delegation.
   The FBCCI first vice president, Mohammad Ali, said trade balance between Bangladesh and Malaysia is always in favour of Kuala Lumpur and urged the delegation members to make investment in Bangladesh to narrow down the gap.


Akij Bidi factory closed
BDNews . Jessore

Workers of ‘Akij Bidi Factory’- the age-old factory of slender cigarettes at Navaron in Jessore has been shut down Saturday following a fiasco over retrenching one of the workers.
   Sources said, Anwar Hossain a ‘Petty man’ was fired for beating one Habibur Rahman-a checker in the factory. Being boiled over the issue, workers under the leadership of Anwar Hossain at 11 am launched vandalism, damaged the doors and windows of the factories and looted Bidis worth Tk 3 lakh.
   One spokesman of the owners said ‘ Akij Bidi Factory has to count a loss of Tk four lakh’.
   Witnesses said, the agitating workers beat cashier Khalilur Rahman, checker Ziaur Rahman and guard Aiyub Hossain mercilessly who were given first aid at the local hospital.
   Abu Taher, factory manager admitting the tussle said, ‘The authorities declared the factory closed for indefinite period from Saturday’. He added, the authorities filed a case with Jhikorgachha thana for plunder and vandalism within the factory compound.


Afghan budget passed
Agence France-Presse . Kabul

The Afghan parliament approved its first national budget on Saturday after allowing for a pay hike for civil servants that had delayed its passage by a fortnight, officials said.
   Cuts in certain areas approved on Saturday would allow the government to raise civil servant salaries, which
   start at around 60 dollars a month, by 300 afghani, or six dollars, said a spokesman for the parliament secretariat, Haseeb Noori.
   There are around 325,000 civil servants in Afghanistan.
   The budget also provides for a two-dollar rise in the state grant to people disabled in the country’s decades of war.


African economic forum
spins optimistic outlook

Agence France-Presse . Cape Town

Encouraging economic growth, good prospects, and an attractive climate for investment: that is the picture the World Economic Forum in Africa has painted of the poorest continent as it seeks to boost a promising spurt of expansion.
   The optimistic tone permeated the three-day conference in the South African city of Cape Town, which wrapped up Friday, and brought together some 700 representatives from business and government, according to organizers.
   ‘We come to this conference in an atmosphere of hope,’ declared South African President Thabo Mbeki, as he pointed to Africa’s 5.5 per cent growth rate in 2005.
   That optimism was backed up by recent surveys.
   Some 52 per cent of Africans are optimistic about the future, according to a poll released at the start of the ‘African Davos’ forum. The survey conducted by the Gallup Organization in 61 countries worldwide—including eight in Africa—found that Africans were more hopeful than the rest of the world that 2006 will be better than last year.
   The upbeat outlook also is supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which forecasts an economic growth rate of 5.8 per cent for Africa this year, the continent’s best performance in more than 30 years.
   To help bolster the continent’s economic prospects, political, business and civil society leaders at the forum launched the African Investment Clim